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Projected Put Protection Cost/Day(Bubble Size)-BABA - Aug 2022

Been trying to make use of stock options to predict forward stock price besides the infamous calls/puts ratio of my own.

So far in terms of downside risks, I have derived this graph from the Friday closing price of BABA (ADR) and their put options to protect against downside risk in the forward periods by deriving the cost of protection proxied by the call outs in terms of expiry dates, strike price ( averaged ) and the internal rate of return. For example.

For expiry 26 Aug 2022, the averaged cost is US$86.91 and the internal rate of return is 0.3897% whereas furthest out for 21 Jun 2024, it can bottom out to US68.30 and 0.0278%.

Will these prices be reflective of the forward downside price of the stock?

Peter Lye aka lkypeter
lkypeter@gmail.com Safe Harbor. Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Peter Lye (c) Peter Lye 2019

Singapore is not Turkey - Diversifying your Currency Risk - Aug 2018, published Apr 2020

Singapore is not Turkey is a mischievous attention grabbing title with the Turkish Lira moving everywhere with no destination in the horizon. Imprinted against little red dot Singapore lies a good measure of wisdom, foresight and measures ( yes indeed ) we can take to lessen potential future pain suffered by those with interest in Turkey or Turkish Lira.

Like many Singaporean man in the street, personal balance sheet used to be denominated ONLY in Singapore Dollar (SGD) assets and liabilities until recent past where I ventured to park some currency UNHEDGED instruments after much thought. Had a tensed social debate with a secondary school classmate on this topic at his home a few New Year Eve ago. Our spouse thought it was getting out of hand but over the years we have very much learnt to agree to disagree having worked together to produce our school magazine at 16 year old. Why is there a need to diversify my SGD exposure if the intention is to retire here as it would be a natural hedge; SGD-SGD; so goes the conventional wisdom. After USD was delinked from Gold Standard, all currency essentially became Fiat currency. Absolute measure vaporized as most currency became relative to each other. Sovereigns issuing currency controlled their supply by literally printing money. Simplistically balance between demand and supply was chief in determining its price. To inculcate budgeting, the common rhetoric that they are not printing money ought to be yes but government all over cannot escape the enticement of running fiscal deficits. The small number of countries with net positive fiscal budget in the last 11 years of economic rally is proof of this.

Inter-government agreements are hardy and essential to drive everyday economic decisions. Under pressure, it could be porcelain brittle and break. Turkey is geo-politically sandwiched between East and West and has 2/3 of its important political levers in EU being a member of both NATO ( perhaps not for long in light of her recent

purchases of Russian arms ) and EU common market. Turkish Lira (TRY) is the local currency unlike most EU countries that adopted the common EUR as their local/regional currency. Barring her differential on Iran, no credible rescue was in sight for TRY.

Without belittling our ASEAN 2 billion emergency currency swap agreement, I doubt the utility of such firstly because the amount is perhaps good against very temporal market alimonies but not sustained structural or systemic issues. Hong Kong just burned HKD $2.195 equivalent in reserves today 15th August 2018 buying their currency to support the peg. This is not her first neither will it be her last if the USD/HKD 7.8 peg were to stay. As we speak, India and Indonesia are also dealing with their own currency issues as the Turkish crisis is turning systemic and spreading to other Emerging Market currencies.

Secondly, economies are more global and connected now and local issues can turn systemic regionally or globally faster. If fires were to break out systemically across ASEAN, each man for himself would most probably rule the day. Although ASEAN members have sustained ties and common interest, the firewall separating each sovereign member might prove more polarizing.

Fiat is no Faith. Anyone who claims irrefutably to robust understanding of Forex is most probably a liar or living in their own world. Global forex is huge and complex and I doubt anyone have such mastery as he would be the richest man on earth if so. Boundless talent from economics (not exactly a science to some), mathematics, physics, biology to computer have been working on it with very limited success. How to have faith in something with little understanding though my fellow Christians would argue otherwise. To them, faith is believing in the unseen.

Currency is essentially the cornerstone and keystone architecturally speaking of our everyday living being the starting point and without which the structure will fall. Being a necessary devil having an ostrich mentality isn't helping unless living in an Amish community is your cup of tea. Undeniably, as human progress, our ability to live in isolation decreases and with it the need for money as a medium of exchange. Some archaeologist believe that a healed femur is the green shoots for signs of a civilization and along the same lines, money might be proof of civilization reaching puberty but not her zenith. Healed femur was proposed because it might be proof of mutual care between humans. Money isn't the perfect medium of exchange; in fact it rates poorly in some quarters like equability but it is the best that we have. Even the communist saw a need for it.

Risk where more can be less. Markowitz, the father of modern portfolio theory opined and justly rewarded with a Nobel prize that that non-systemic risk in portfolio can be reduced through diversification. Recent critiques highlighted many limitations with this theory chiefly because the theory was more applicable as a reduction of standard deviation rather than risk. Others relate to short selling and questionable effectiveness for market makers as oppose to takers. The important theme being that diversification does reduce risk in general everything else being equal.

Singapore Government Bonds are denominated in SGD and this can be a double edged sword. Post Mexican debt crisis, central banks and governments began to realize the hazards of issuing their bonds in foreign currencies but many are still cornered to do so. The market for bonds denominated in their local currency might not exists or the interest rate could be too sky rocket high to compensate investors for taking such risks. Singapore government remains a rare majority within emerging market economies that still issues bonds in their own currency. However, if you are holding on to such bonds, there is a very remote but should never be overlooked risk of the government monetizing such bonds by printing money in very desperate times.

Pragmatically, I would do better to have part of my personal balance sheet denominated in other currencies although the plan is to retire here. In the last 3 decades, even major currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CNY have all fluctuated by more than 20% in terms of their relative value to each other. Other currencies have seen near total collapse or major devaluation especially in smaller economies and less developed countries like Mexico, Indonesia, Venezuela etc.

Although Singapore is no Turkey, it is still better to diversify your risks as no one can guarantee you that Singapore might not turn Turkey in the future figuratively speaking.

COVID-19/EBOLA/SARS – Economics, Societal and Political Narrowness-April 2020

Amidst the lockdown or to be politically correct mobility circuit breaker due to COVID-19, I dusted something penned on Ebola and SARS in 2014. Recomposing the current COVID-19 global crisis against my old brainwave in 2014, there were striking similarities and differentials on the societal and political fronts. Seems like our

human race is more xenophobic and
short-sighted collectively than many like to believe individually. Collectivism and individualism could be at polar opposite especially on orphaned issues.

From the comparison between Ebola and SARS, my narrative on the biggest similarities and differentials were along the lines of lack of therapeutics or vaccines, orphaned disease status of the poor and infectability in terms of R⁰. Ebola was clearly an orphaned disease of poor Africa. COVID-19 and SARS share most similarities excepting orphaned disease and the spiraling extensive spill-over into the economic, societal and political fronts. There has been reports of overwhelming over-arching philanthropy across economic lines from rich to poor, societal margins from capitalistic to socialistic leanings through various governmental support schemes and lastly on political and diplomatic agendas from cross country aids as well as putting aside rhetoric like the trade war between America and China. Major problems plaguing these as are their shallowness coupled with lack of depth or sincerity and lack of a trust-worthy leadership to carry these through. Philanthropy has been sparse and even for the few, they were more Hollywood than reality.

Echoing current IMF views that a lack of post COVID-19 solution like who would own or pay for the bill of the bailouts cannot be reason enough in this hour as the impact of stasis is un-imaginable chaos that will be harder to see daylight, this line of reasoning carries the hazard where the fittest might leverage to maximize their interest instead of being applied to the needy. This is not an unreasonable worry as 2008/2009 schemes like the troubled asset relief program (TARP) in USA has mainly benefited Wall-Street who were the main culprit leaving much of main street to shoulder the burden although Wall-Street would opined that they re-paid every penny but imputing the risk adjusted interest on these re-payment makes a joke as Wall-Street are supposed to be good at pricing risk. They operate the primary risk market not only for financial risk but a broad spectrum from food to natural resource like wheat, corn to oil and metals. The best legal and law making minds must be deployed to craft caveats to guard against such through either a combination of policies and wide ranging prosecution measures embedded to make such attempts improbable. The process of law making and has mostly tipped in the favor of industries through their lobbying machinery against limited resources of the populace. In addition, history through the ages and across civilizations have taught us that legal frameworks does not ensure that justice is served in all cases as at the perimeters, the powerful do get away normally out of legal technicalities or the voiceless poor given all but cosmetic legal aid defense or not getting the necessary time of day from the public prosecutors who holds some discretionary power. Although this is not the most urgent, its importance cannot be thrown under the bus of urgency.

The current COVID-19 situation is slightly different as the source seems to be a product of mother nature although the verdict is not or will never be out on it as with the likes of SARS, better to focus on the solution for now. Unlike events like WWII, nipping the bud in terms of eradicating the primary agents like the Axis of Evil will not solve the problem. This is entertaining the wildest far fetched imagination that it might be a product of scientific laboratory malfeasance or accident unless the source possess the formulary to the anti-dote in the form of a combination of therapeutics or vaccine.

If the therapeutics and vaccine path is unlikely to yield significant results in the short run even if FDA fast track the time to bedside usage or relaxes the criteria and hasten the approval of non-approved pipelined drugs on compassionate grounds, it is good that the medical community is visiting the re-purposing of existing drugs used for HIV, Cancer, Flu and the 100 year old plasma therapy to fill in the gap. These initiative are important as COVID-19 can do a lot of damage in the minimal 12 to 18 months it takes to get a new drug in. Perhaps, targeted research should be directed in this direction in the short run as what we need is a tool that can drive in the proverbial nail and not necessary the perfect hammer.

Another big hurdle is the accuracy, speed and cost of testing for COVID-19 for more effective epidemiological and public heath measures to work. No test is perfectly accurate but the existing gold standard using certain RT-PCR process has an exceeding low level of accuracy in both type I and II errors as well as a big indefinite band in statistical speak. Head of WHO has gone on record in an earlier press briefing comparing the accuracy of HIV test against COVID-19 test with the former having a confidence level of more than 99% and he did not reveal any percentages in the case of COVID-19 but add that he is less sure. A possibility is the newness of the test and lower population size to arrive at higher degree of confidence. Some health authorities have adopted the 2 to 3 serial consistent testing results to increase the level of confidence. Speed of the test is crucial with a fast spreading disease like COVID-19 and current RT-PCR test takes hours or days to turn around. Some of the processes in RT-PCR involves centrifugal spinning of samples and re-agents repeatedly that cannot be short cut. Cost was a hurdle in some countries as the cost of RT-PCR test can be in the hundreds (USD) and initial USA health insurance coverage presented a cost issue as some patients without requisite insurance coverage and large co-payment might not be able to afford or simply do not see money well spent for the test. This has been largely addressed in most health authorities by having the government bearing the cost of the test. On this note, it surfaces that cost of health care is no longer entirely a private and individual concern can be dependent on the least common denominator in our population and therefore perhaps another case for social medicine.

Some diseases like COVID-19 do not live in a vacuum and pull rail truck loads of collateral damage the length and speed of the Trans-Siberian Railway along with them. Although the collateral damages and its interlinkedness makes it difficult to separate between cause and effect, perhaps centrifuging the maze of collateral damage might spread them out on a spectrum for better visibility and addressable bit size.

Economically, it would generate simultaneous demand and supply shocks resulting in massive un-employment or a newly coined temporary non-employment with wage freeze. Unemployment in USA is north of 10% within weeks of limited lock down measures. Airlines were the first industry to be impacted intensively and extensively at the speed of light. It didn’t help that Boeing, one of the two largest aircraft manufacturers globally was already reeling in a safety crisis resulting in planned shutdown of some facilities after two crashes of her new 737-MAX leaving about 100 newly built 737-MAX aircrafts sitting parked in their facilities un-deliverable as airlines refuse delivery and some even threatening to cancel orders or not exercising purchase options for pipelined orders. Problems of another nature surfaces as shortage for personal protection equipment (PPE) to both protect front line staff especially those in medical and essential services. Key amongst the shortages were for surgical masks, N95 masks, ventilators and disposable protective suits. Complicating this problem further progression or some say regression, the manufacturing process and supply chain has become longer and more complex. Most end products traverse continents with thousand of touchpoints each of which is highly specialized to be optimized. This could be one of the reasons to keep some of these manufacturing facilities and supply chains mothballed instead being liquidated to pieces with lesser hope and longer to re-assemble after the crisis. There is always room for re-organizing and re-purposing resources for shorter term needs but the choices have to be made holistically for the longer run and not solely on economic basis.

The central banks have been quick perhaps too hasty in re-acting to ensure proper functioning of the banking system and liquidity a float. Central banks have chiefly operated in the domain of interest rates, reserve ratios, government bonds and the like even during various quantitative easing undertaken previously. Even wildest dream could not envision central banks dabbling in corporate bonds even venturing onto those rated as junk by the big 3 rating agencies so long as the downgrade to junk happened after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis or can be attributed to the COVID-19 crisis. This might be done on the one market without any restrictive covenants limiting certain top executive compensation, share buy backs, dividend payments and declaration or the likes imposed on companies that took money under TARP. This can present itself as a money making trading opportunity by tail coating behind this novel and more opaque move by the central banks with little or no accountability.

As most currencies are principally issue on a fiat basis with some like HKD based on a peg to USD, a lost in trust in any major currency could fall quickly like domino into a global monetary system collapse. The result might be a return to the ancient practice of barter trade. Barter trade might not necessarily be a bad temporary solution. However, the slide into barter trade will be anything but orderly and might entail societal anarchy if not properly unwound.

Politically, the COVID-19 crisis could polarize countries further. It is a funny phenomenal that as our world become more inter-connected through technological leaps in air, sea and land transportation and tele-communication, countries are turning more xenophobic. This could further fracture crack lines already present in relationship between countries and escalating into trade wars, border disputes and perhaps limited scale local or regional conflict. Such conflicts can leveraged by super powers into a proxy war with an enlarged foot print.

Assuming that humanity crosses this sea of danger to land safely on solid ground, economic frameworks for distribution of wealth, societal norms for power allocation and political boundaries and agendas might have to take a reset. Communism might attempt to green-shoot but its track record is both too poor and tainted. Capitalism will most probably still win the day but the wide ranging GINI might not withstand the weight demanded by social justice and the clarion call for a more egalitarian society.

Finally, humility and transparency should trump over over-confident smug calls by the authorities. We might be in the early days where the known-unknown and the unknown-unknown dominates the scene. This is no time for evidence or fact based decision not that we throw caution to the wind and make decisions recklessly. It does call for novel, adoptive and practical approach in place for bureaucratic norms and precedents. For example, the not wearing masks in public is a poor judgement just because there is no proof that wearing of masks reduces spread of the disease. Why not explain that we might not have enough masks as we do not know how long the crisis might last and and need to prioritize for front line healthcare workers and are working on the supply situation actively either through local manufacturer or overseas sourcing. It was quite clear that masks were hard to come by in retails pharmacies and even at government pharmacies at times. Now that we have photos of our PM and his cabinet wearing mask during their meeting tells the obvious. The lack of public hospital beds has been a problem of many year with the long wait time between transfer from A&E to wards taking hours sometimes up to 12-20 hours is proof of that. We cannot degrade this deficit in healthcare facilities under the bus of more urgent matters any longer without paying a dear price as has been shown in various parts of the world recording needlessly higher mortality due to a lack of hospital beds and ventilators.

Why SMB Need Key Man Insurance

20 July 2016^© Peter Lye

After 3 decades, Key Man Insurance is still too 747 heavy for lift off in big way.

It might be a sterling example of lost in translation. Though the label is semantically correct, the impression created seems to suggest some grandiose plan not meant for commoner.

This is far from reality as it was created mainly with the smaller business in mind instead MNCs and larger corporates.

Insurance is intangible in itself. Compound this complexity that Key Man Insurance hardly exists as ready to sell product but as a wrapper for a bespoke basket of insurance products, it is easy to understand why only the brave will attempt to venture.

Unlike liability class of insurance which provides a like for like recourse like repair, replacement or hold legally harmless, Key Man Insurance normally provides a pre-agreed compensation in cash. Some quarters voice that this money does not buy everything necessary to recompensate a key man insurance, it sure can buy many things.

Key Man are essentially owners, business partners or employees for which their continued ability to contribute to the business if curtailed by illness, accidents or death can result in major business impact. The value contribution can be special skills, relationships with customers or source of finance.

The risk coverage can range from basic death due to accident only, to term for death due to whatever cause or even critical illness. Critical illness can affect work ability and this is an important consideration though it is relatively more costly risk to cover. Many have asked about risk of jumping ship to competitor or leaving for whatever reason and the answer is normally no as there is a certain level of control over the outcome rather than a random event. This infringes one of the basic principle of insurance that the outcome is not controllable or largely not controllable.

Table:Key Man Issue Impact on SMB vs MNCs

	SMB	MNCs or Large Corporate
Funding	Owner. Bank Facilities (OD/Trade) with Personal Guarantees by shareholders.	Corporate Capital Market. Bank Facilities with Corporate Guarantees.
Skills Duplication	Rarely or limited	Widespread
Process Documentation	Limited even for those with ISO 900X	Robust
Economy of Scale	Limited	Larger
Ownership/Management	More Integrated	Segregated
Too Big to Fail	None	In Some Case
Quick Access to Sudden Cash / Resource	Limited	Extensive in Most Case Especially in MNCs.

It is clearly evident from the table above why SMB should be looking at Key Man Insurance rather than MNCs as they have sufficient buffer in most case.

Key Man Insurance Cash Pay-out is normally arranged in one of the following fashions when an insured event which is normally a Key Man like issue arises.

Firstly, for business that are funded by owner and Bank Facilities with Personal Guarantors, the Pay-out is useful in case the of loans or trade facilities by banks. A wise sage once opined that wise Bankers only try to loan you money when you least need it.

In the case of a sudden skill shortfall due to key person meeting the insured event, the cash pay-out is useful to secure additional resource to re-compensate part of the resource or to keep the business a float due to sudden drop in business.

As ownership and management is more often than not integrated in SMB, a buy-out agreement using the insurance cash pay-out as a base load can ensure a more congenial management of the company without the sudden intrusion of a new management member to replace the key man. This can be structured along the lines of a Texas Shoot Out Clause to ensure fairer value of transaction for both buyer and seller.

Most SMB owners have poured in blood and sweat to take their business to where it is and it would be a waste to see it die with them. In addition, it is also part of being a responsible to your business partners and employees.

Imagine chef/owner Peter of your favourite neighbourhood burger diner paralysed by a sudden stroke and passed away. What will happen to his business, partners, employees and most of all his family members. Little imagination is needed to picture the catastrophe.

The special marinate that makes the burger unique was formulated by Peter and though many staff and partners have seen it done daily, the exact recipe was never documented. Customers started to complain that the burger tasted different.

The business started by Peter as a small street corner food cart many years ago. When it tasted success, Peter roped in 2 additional business partners who were in the restaurant business to provide restaurant expertise to expand it into a full service diner. The additional capital needed to acquire shop space, kitchen and dining area were provided by the 2 new partners and bank over draft and trade facilities secured by joint personal guarantee by Peter and his partners.

The Bank not only stop all credit facilities but recalled all loans. The business almost grind to a halt as most working capital is via Bank facilities. Bankers are logical business that take such actions because firstly, they now have 2 instead of 3 personal guarantors. Secondly, business risk has also increased with poorer business outlook.

The final straw came when the Bank lodged a charge on Peter’s estate on account of the personal guarantee locking all the emergency funds the immediate family needs.

If the same were to happen to a branch manager of MacDonald, business would continue almost normally save for a minor discontinuity during the initial period it takes to transfer and localise another branch manager. Bankers, suppliers and customers would hardly blink about it.

This is why Key Man Insurance is for SMB.

Wisdom of Va$ue under Fiat Currency - March 2015

"We want to believe things (money) have intrinsic value, .... the US dollar is backed by “nothing”, ... any currency system is backed by “nothing”"...Fortune Magazine

No single instrument can claim to be a safe haven including USD and gold but collectively, a safer haven is within reach.

Nixon’s presidency was punctuated by many significant events like his visit to China as well as the famous Watergate scandal. His most deep and long lasting decision to abandon convertibility of USD into gold has escaped many history textbooks for posterity. Perhaps tinsel town should consider a movie on this theme.

After Nixon abandoned convertibility of USD into gold in 1971, the gold standard figuratively speaking for measuring value lost its lustre. By 1973 all hope of restoring the Bretton Woods System was lost plunging the currency world into a sea of chaotic free floating fiat currencies which we have today.

Reverence for USD and her government took an unprecedented and irrecoverable hit followed that decision. Her position as the untouchable global leader remains but has diluted to undisputable and within gun sight of other global power wannabes. This puts the fragile peace since Second World War into jeopardy. In addition, most wars have its roots in economics and break out when the political process to band aid the economic wound fails and goes gangrene.

Against such a backdrop, measuring value in investment which was axiomatic in the past based on commodity and representative currency has turned into the equivalent of 50 shades of the grey. The economics 101 of money invented some 3000 years back in China is to facilitate trade and a referential store and measure of wealth for future consumption.

Reference losing its reverence is akin to salt losing its saltiness.

As a medium of exchange, it has served us well without which, cumbersome barter trade becomes the only other means of trade. Trade is necessary evil as we do not make all we need and there is no necessity nor advantageous to do so. Fiat money has created or exacerbated international trade involving different currencies as well as inflation/deflation as its intrinsic value floats about.

It is also by far the best store of value as it is non-perishable, portable, and holds an intrinsic value and so we believe until we unearth the dust beneath the carpet about fiat money. Pascal-Emmanuel Gorby most eloquently described the state of intrinsic value of money in an article "All Money is Fiat Money" in August 2013 of Fortune magazine as follows. "We want to believe things (money) have intrinsic value, .... the US dollar is backed by “nothing”, ... any currency system is backed by “nothing”".

Currency is revenue generating unlike gold which has a high intrinsic value but no such abilities save for capital gain/loss which in itself a product of demand and supply differential. Interestingly, since time memorable, gold has been universally recognized as valuable in its own right with little productive use except for limited application in some industries and this account for a small portion of the total demand for gold.

The strong demand for gold might reflect the diminished confidence in fiat currency as gold almost always appreciates as a flight to safe haven whenever there are significant disturbances in the political and economic spheres.

For the man in the street, it is important to consider spreading your risk to protect yourself from the systemic risk in fiat currency.

Consider parking part of your wealth in other currencies and hold enough of your local currency sufficient for a time horizon for transactional purpose. Avoid currencies that are pegged to each other like HKD and USD for example.

Exposed your wealth to certain countries and industries that you see an upside after due diligence. Funds could be a good alternative as some markets are not easily accessible or you might not have the scale to do so.

Invest in hard asset that you might need in the mid to long term to hedge against the currency risk like buying a house in a locale that your plan to retire in.

No single instruement can claim to be a safe haven including USD and gold but collectively, a safer haven is within reach.

Wikipedia®Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License

Abe 2 Able?

Prime Minister of Japan Abe has made a rare come back in the same seat that he occupied previously. The question on everybody’s mind is the difference and similarity between Abe then and now. Having just started his tenure, he has made some surprising changes in a short space of time. Not only were they made domestically but also on internationally. This is quite surprising firstly because he belongs to the more conservative LDP party. Secondly, in Japanese political culture, behind the façade of a democracy imposed on them after world war two, Japan has been a monarchy for hundreds of years.

His recent visit to the Yasakuni Shinto Shrine that worships some of the worst second world war heroes/criminals trial by the international court of justice in The Hague. This has created much controversy on domestic and international front although he said that his visit is on a private basis and not as PM of Japan. On the international front, this visit tantamount to a certain extend that Japan isn’t totally repentant about the atrocities it has done during the second world war. It sort of endorses or justify that the war was not totally the fault of Japan. The Germans have surrendered totally and there is no monument to worship Hitler of the Third Reich as heroes. It could also be an overture to the international community that Japan is sovereign to do what it likes within reasonable global sand box.

On the domestic front, the visit is still highly regarded as a heroic act as a man of guts knowing full well the international implications. Secondly, it endorses his personal religious practice of Shintoism. This would likely win him more popular ground support but not all Japanese are like minded about it. Japan is still practicing revisionary history books about their second world war criminality or the lack of it much to the consternation of the international community especially China. Germany has come to terms and condemn their actions openly in their history books to remind future generations never to repeat it.

As if this is not enough to create controversy, he wanted the history text book to change references of ‘sex slave’ to ‘comfort women’ . There seems to be little differential between the two but the interpretation in Japanese is vast. The former implies that the women were forced into sex slavery against their own will. The latter seems to imply that it is not much different between the comfort women and present day prostitute. After all prostitution is the oldest trade by some quarters of society.

There has been long standing sovereignty dispute of old over what China calls Diayu Island and Senkaku by the Japanese. Abe decided to up the ante by first having the island bought over from private ownership to state land and instructing its self defence force to safe guard their claim strongly and there had been a recent near miss between Japanese and Chinese fighter jets over the island with no weaponry exchange. These islands are mere land is in vast sea between Japan and China and have very little economic value unlike some of those in the South China Sea with minerals or oil or much sea or airspace implications.

These two issues have placed the newly elected Chinese XiPing in a tight corner as he cannot be too conferential or lax. So far, he has left the people of China to do the job for him by encouraging or putting minimal steps in stopping the riots against Japanese interest in China. China is totally able to quash the riots like it did in Tiananmen Square but XiPing is letting it go to appease the masses. Heads he wins tail you lose.

On the international front, this has also created a problem for USA who has viewed the Asia Pacific arena as being trilateral between China and its other communist allies as one. On the religion front with Malaysia and Indonesia especially after 911 and Japan with the rest of the countries as the third camp especially The Philippines, South Korea and Japan where USA has defence bases in. Suddenly the alliance has become more complex over night. China has been spending double digit percentage of their GDP on defence and now there is loud outcry for Japan to up its single digit self defence budget to match. After world war two Japan has enshrined into their constitution that they will not go to war and their defence force for self protection. To a certain extent, I would say this part of the constitution could have been placed on them under duress. The culture of violence is very in grained in them evidenced by their comics and computer games for adults. North Korea is on close watch but not on the radar as the largest threat is their ability to launch ICBMs tipped with nuclear head into USA; selfish to a certain extend.

On the economic front, Abe seems determined to get the economy out of the lost decade. He has ‘told’ not ‘advise’ the central bank to achieve a 2% inflation after the long deflation. In recent past, currency traders were also stunted by the dollar yen overnight exchange rate hitting a 4 year low and zig sawing between technical rebounds. This is caused by the Japanese central bank soaking up liquidity by buying back their bonds. Exchange rate is crucial in making Japanese exports competitive and this has ignited a small trade war with USA. The newly elected president Obama has not taken any action or met Abe face to face yet and is likely to leave it to the new incoming vice president. Democrats being less libertarian is likely to have their central bank intervene soon. Normally central banks do not like being told by the government as they view themselves as being independent. Perhaps he is sounding the my way or no way to the rest who intend to stand in his way.

It seems that he has done little to deserved a memorial place in history during his first term and his current agenda is to be a historical change agent for better or for worse so help us God. Japan and Japanese are walkovers although she was decimated after world war two. Unknowing to the world, second world war has not ended but has change facade from a combative to an economic front.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter
Safe HarborPlease note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.