So much negative newsprint has been devoted to the situation in North America and Europe that perhaps Asia Pacific has been over-rated as the region that has done relatively well. As I seat back and ponder on the various hot spots in Asia Pacific, I grew more concerned as I live in Singapore which is part of Asia Pacific. Whether we should trea these situations as hair line cracks or a slow but sure polarization with dire consequences for the world.
Starting with the western end, Pakistan should worry us not so much with the assassination of of Punjab Governor Salman Taser. His death could represent a step backward for those championing secular democracy as opposed to a muslim democracy. Pakistan seems to be one of the few countries with a sizable muslim population that seems to be US friendly. This assassination would be more than an embarrassment for the Obama administration. Pakistan has been a key ally of the US in helping to maintain peace in the region as well as a purveyor of US oil interest into the neighboring oil rich Middle East.
What made this a bigger blow was how did his bodyguard that killed him pass the same screening process that Pakistan has so convinced the world that people manning their nuclear arsenal are screened to exclude muslim fundamentalist. The assassin proudly admitted to his act and was thrown roses on his way to court as if hailing him as a hero. This might signal a certain level of worrying possibility on the level muslim fundamentalism has infiltrated the populace in general.
My next question is on the nuclear arsenal in Pakistan. Is it in safe enough hands and whether the government has enough control over it to prevent muslim fundamentalists from using it to hold the world at ransom or worse spark off a nuclear conflict with India or against countries deemed as having a anit-muslim agenda directly or indirectly.
The hero like treatment of his assassin could also signal rising support for muslim democracy as opposed to secular democracy that Salman Taser has championed all his life. This could worsen the long standing conflict between Pakistan and India as the main raison d'etre for the conflict is religiously motivated more than anything else.
Korean Peninsula
North and South Korea who are technically still at war is definitely very tensse. South Korea has for the longest time a US ally and North Korea is both reclusive and hermit like towards the rest of the world perhaps with the exception of China.. It has been speculated that North Korea might have nuclear warfare capabilities and is definitely in the midst of power transition from Kim Jong-Il to his youngest son Kim Jong Un as the elder Kim as there has been rumors about the state of his health.
An unstable North Korea not only spells trouble for South Korea alone but for the Asia Pacific region as well as the world at large. South Korea is now a major economy in Asia Pacific and can send shock waves to an already unstable world economy. In addition, a conflict could politically draw the supporters of North and South Korea ie China and US to sucked into this conflict indirectly and raising the stakes of a wider conflict between China and US.
Russian and Japanese relations has been put to the test over the disputed Kuril Islands. This contest is not likely to be based economic or military motive but most probably due to the political bargaining chip for greater things or to feed the ego of the politicians.
In warfare strategy, there is no need to be on parity on all fronts with your opponents. The ability to threaten the capabilities of your opponents can be as effective. China's air-craft carrier killer missile is a case in point as the various US carrier group that has been freely roaming the international waters of water of their allies in the region without much threat and a show of force would be more restrictive especially nearer to Taiwan where China has claimed to be one of its provinces. China's readiness on the carrier killer missile would change the naval balance of power in the Asia Pacific and could also means the US carrier groups sphere of operation or influence. In addition, China has of late been taking a harder stand on international matter and does not yield easily to US or international pressure. This is evident in the its posture of their permanent seat on UN security council as well as the dialogue between the two presidents when the Chinese president visited the white house.
On the economic front, China is now the largest holder of US treasure bonds over-taking Japan recently and this will give China the capabilities to rock the US economy if she wants to or to use it as a bargaining chip. While the Chinese currency RMB is not ready to takeover US$ as a major medium of international trade as well as an international reserve currency, China is slowly but surely loosening its grip on the RMB to allow it to be used for bilateral trade with China as well as relaxing currency control measures.
Although we can hail democracy as the leading means of governance with the fall of the Berlin wall as well as Russia losing control over eastern europe, China could very well proof to the world that communism might be a viable form of governance. This would become more distinct if the capitalistic regime of US and Europe undergoes further crisis.
Thailand's King has been the stabilizing force whenever the kingdom is in a power struggle and yet be able to let the democratically elected prime minister and his cabinet to rule freely during peace time. However, in the past 2 years, the unification strength of the King might have dwindled somewhat or the King has chosen not to interfere more actively as before. In addition, he is getting on in years and it seems that his heir apparent might not wield the same level of influence as the current king; at least not initially. This can be worrying as it can bring political and economic turbulence to a kingdom that is much in need of a stable platform to grow the economy and reduce poverty in the more remote parts of the kingdom. This is critical as some of the remote parts of the kingdom have muslim instead of buddhist majority and that can be an ingredient for separatists elements to fix a brew.
While we pay heed to the more substantial problems in US and Europe, we must also keep a watching brief over Asia Pacific also.
Cheers,,,, Pete aka http://lkypeter.blogspot.com
Safe Harbor
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