Oslo Carnage-Singaporean Perspective

93 lives vaporized in a matter of about 90 minutes in Oslo on 22 July 2011 because 32 year old Anders Behring Breivik wanted to ensure that the authorities gave his beliefs the necessary attention. This event would change the Norwegian way of life like what 911 did to USA. Instead of taking his own life, he allowed himself to fall into the hands of the law and face the prospect of 20-30 years behind bars if convicted and accorded the full force of the law as Norway has no death penalty. Perhaps he wanted his day in court to promote his far-right ideology as by default, court proceedings are open to public and journalist. However, from his indictment proceedings which is unprecedentedly a closed one, his newsprint hours in court might not be that full. It was a surprising move as closed proceedings are the norm mostly in cases involving minors or of a sexual nature. Even the 911 court proceedings were open in US.

His actions are definitely pre-mediated over a period of 9 years but it most probably would not qualify for first degree murder as the victims are sort of random in nature. As of now, they prosecutors have not actually decided on what to nail Breivik and court has allowed a special 8 weeks of solitary confinement where only his lawyer is allowed access to give the prosecution more latitude in the conduct of the investigation and finally arriving at a charge. Perhaps extraordinary events call for extraordinary measures. On a lighter note on this very grave issue, perhaps it is a sort of reverse class action.

This event set me thinking on what can Singapore and Singaporean learn and take precautionary measures beyond policing and intelligence spheres but also on public, political, economic arenas and also rethink the meaning of justice beyond the restrictive meanings of those in the lawyering and judiciary profession. Perhaps also the parliament where our laws are made.

Punitive Measures
As a maturing society, we ought to come to terms that no amount of effort is enough to totally prevent such risks. On the same note, much can be done by our government and society acting in concerted effort to minimize the risks. To throw caution to the wind and do nothing just because it is an impossibility would amount to gross negligence.

The maximum punishment that laws in various countries differs widely but it can be classed as 3 broad categories. Death sentence by which ever means, time limited life sentence which can vary from 20-30 years and life sentence till death with no time limit. Various comparative especially between death sentence and life sentence and its impact on serious crime rates has not been totally conclusive that death sentence reduces serious crime rates. This is not a pro-life debate and one thing we can conclude that death sentence appears to be a cheaper alternative for the government in terms of managing such criminals. There is some co-relation that most first world nations consider the death sentence as cruel and so do away with it but in many states in USA, the death sentence is still the order of the day for serious crimes. It is rather conclusive that in almost all countries, the law is sufficient or perhaps too punitive in some cases.

Besides the law,the co-joining factors relates to policing and judiciary process. Being mostly libertarian at heart, I think that we need to titrate the level of policing to a sufficient level to have an acceptable level of public safety and law and order and not be driven to the extreme of being a police state with little or no freedom for the citizenry. This is a complex issue that the government in consultation with the citizenry must decide not only on the level of policing but also the matter and form as well.

Judiciary process is a very loaded item and I would be very careful else I run foul of the law. Basically, the two main categories are a judge based or jury consisting of the citizenry. There is no conclusive evidence of one over the other. I stand very economized here.

In terms of punitive measures, I am of the opinion that we overall fairly sufficient altogether there have been some controversies on both end of the spectrum. We had to contend with and grow up as a nation with regards to the escape whilst under Singapore custody of a key potential terrorist element Mas Selamat arrested by the police of our neighboring country Malaysia succeeding man hunting down Mas Selamat and extraditing him back to Singapore. On the other hand, we have also been criticized by NGOs like Amnesty International for Internal Security Act which allows for detention without trial. I recognized that this act is a caricature left behind by the British that used to be our colonial masters. I also see reasons for not dropping or changing this Act as Singapore was facing substantial struggle from communists or communalists elements both internally as well as externally like the Communist Party of Malaya and fast breeding of communism in our corridor like Vietnam, Cambodia and Burma with their larger over lords of Russian and China. This dispensation is most probably passe with communism running out of style as well as being reformed greatly like in China. Let not in our haste for popularism throw the baby out with the bath water by eliminating the Internal Security Act altogether but can explore changes to it to fit the political climate. USA enacted the Patriot Act and created a Homeland Security Bureau in reaction to 911 and perhaps having the backbone of an Act of similar nature, we can revise the Act instead.

As in all things, we must sought for balanced and well considered position rather than a knee jerk and more extremists measures. No doubt time is of the essence but we can always have temporary legislation subject to further review with a given time frame perhaps. The Patriot Act in USA is not without detractors internally as well as fear of turning the country into a police state or fear of misuse by those in powers for their own ends.

Social Glue-GINI index and Social mobility
There are research evidence co-relating high GINI with either terrorist activity, revolt and war. I see social mobility as part being a big part to address high GINI index overtime. It is my worry here as a Singaporean that our GINI index has been increasing even with a growing GDP. I am all for a meritocratic value system but it must be tampered with a humane heart and safety net for the those at the bottom of society as well as those that falls through the strict rules of the safety net. I know that the current PAP government is very resolute in not encouraging a lethargic socialist populace by holding back on expanding the social safety net. I am very concerned in this arena as a widening rich poor gap coupled with fairly porous immigrant labour laws which is a major part of the ingredients capitulating into the Oslo carnage.

Back on social mobility, history has shown that it is easy for a meritocratic society to transform into a class stratified society.  The rich and powerful overtime will be tempted to change the rules of the game to preserve their place in society. Our now retired but still influential statesman Lee Kuan Yew recently was quoted by the press that he will feel sorry for Singapore if we were to have a two party government granted he has various merits for a one party system. History has proven in Animal Farm speak that absolute power corrupts absolutely. This is a very common tendency based on the strength of self interest as stated by Adam Smith. Many have mis-quoted or misunderstood his self interest for selfishness and if we look deeper, there is a big differential between self interest which is lawful, moral and normal to selfishness which can disintegrate a society into the vestiges of hell surely though it might not be immediately.

We have to be true to ourselves that in the same breathe that we speak of meritocracy, we cannot deny the fact that blood the flows in us is thicker than water. This is why I was very concerned when the PAP government decided to scrap Estate Duty totally as estate duty is there as one of the tools to guard against poverty trap. In addition, we ought to watch out and arrest the spread of nepotism as we push towards an equal opportunity society as it is a very human tendency to do so. The spread of the tax burden is also a very key policy instrument and I am in favor of an across the board consumption like our GST as a good and efficient tax practice as it is easier to administer, has fewer tax loopholes as well as encouraging savings for future versus consumption. GST also tend to have a negative effect of shifting the tax burden towards the poor as generally, the poor will save less than the rich as a percentage of their income. To add injury, we have also lowered corporate tax as well as skewed the personal income tax in favor of the rich by reducing the tax rate for those on the higher tax brackets. The rationale explained by the government for the corporate tax to for us to stay competitive with neighboring economies like Hong Kong and the tweaking of the personal income tax to discourage 'tax planning' activities. Perhaps we ought to re-examine the corporate tax, personal income tax, estate duty and GST holistically together.

I am certainly no anglophile but I endorse their making equal opportunity, transparency and equitable society as non-negotiable. England was as feudal state as one can be and remains one of the last few larger economies to continue constitutional monarchy. It took England about 200 years to transition itself from an executive monarchy to constitutional monarchy in a fairly peaceful manner although there has been bloodshed compared to the number of people that died in the communist revolution that overthrew the executive Tsar monarchy in one swoop.

This is not an opportunistic endeavor to use the stage of Oslo carnage to further my personal views but looking at the Oslo Carnage through Singapore looking glass.

Cheers,,,,, Pete

My Fellow American

Monetary Quadratic Mysteries-USD/Euro/Yen/RMB

Sometime back in May 2005, I wrote a similar topic called The Currency Trilogy Impact of USA Policy on the world Economy and it is timely for a review as RMB has gained much ground to warrant being ranked as one of the major currencies of the world. The economic backdrop and her twin sister; the political struggle has also changed significantly.

Technically, there are only 3 main currencies for international trade and reserve purpose because the RMB is non deliverable outside China due to exchange controls imposed by China. This is fast changing as China is experimenting on a limited scale in denominating both import and export in RMB. There is much controversy within China that it might in fact worsen the currency imbalance much like some patients dying from the chemotherapy treatment for their cancer instead.

While this is happening, fast thinking and creative investment bankers whom are partly if not mostly to be blamed for the economic hardship in 2008 following the demise of Lehman Brothers and CDO market have started to offer products like non-deliverable RMB forward contracts where the settlement is mostly in USD/Euro/Yen. Such products has reached such maturity for Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CMB) being the first exchange globally to offer clearing facilities for such instruments to provide more liquidity, price transparency and reduce counter-party risks which wrecked havoc in 2008 for non-exchange traded products. Various exchanges has also jumped on the band wagon to provide such facilities with Singapore Exchange (SGX) being one of them for Asia Pacific region. Being a Singaporean, instead of being jubilant for Singapore, I felt uneasy as the exchanges will now bear the counter party risks. Let's hope that SGX will be disciplined and shrewd in its conduct of such trades if not God help us all in the next crisis.

In addition, a number of Chinese Banks with overseas branches have started offering deposit taking accounts denominated in RMB. The catch is that they are both non-interest bearing and acceptance and delivery is not in RMB but usually the home currency of the branch or USD. Customers are attracted by the money making possibilities based upon the upward trajectory of the RMB.

The US federal government reached its debt ceiling of USD 14.3 trillion in May 2011 and is likely to face a technical default in August 2011 if the dead lock in Congress in approving an increase in the debt ceiling continues. Surprisingly or not so surprisingly, US federal debt instruments continue to maintain investment grade rating by all 3 rating agencies i.e. Fitch, Moody and S&P. Not known to many, the oligopoly of this industry by these 3 companies is protected by US laws therefore there is bound to be COI as these rating agencies does a delicate balance of maintaining its external reputation  and not biting the hands that feeds it.

In today's complex web of financial derivatives, the impact of a technical default of US Federal Government will be further ashore than USA and beyond the holders of the bonds unlike similar circumstances when US defaulted on its bond sold in london by George Peabody of JP Morgan in 1800. Some instruments or products can vaporize into zero value if they have a Credit Event clause tied to the US Federal Government embedded within. Many of these instruments are likely to be traded off exchange and it might take longer for such defaults to become visible. There is also the domino effect of such systemic failures to contend with. All things considered, it is likely to be a larger fire ball compared to Lehman Brothers.

Since the probability of such Credit Events happening is deemed as highly unlikely, correct risk pricing becomes more complicated normally resulting in a bipolar price situation of swinging between extremes at very short notice. This could wipe out products or instruments deemed as safe haven to reach cynaide grade toxicity in a blink of an eyelid. Post Lehman Brothers, only the shorter termed instruments would have expired or re-termed on better conditions but the longer termed instruments continue unabated in carrying such risks. Another class of assets that are likely to be at risk are issuers Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Go check the definition of Credit Events in www.isda.org which is frequently referenced and used and you will be surprised by how wide and easily invokable the definition is.

With the US presidential election due in 2012 and Obama playing his cards towards a second term presidency, he is likely to go for temporal pain relief type of measures than hard to swallow bitter medicine to garner more votes. Surprisingly, his own Democrats in Congress are calling for a more difficult double barreled measure of spending cuts and increasing taxes while the Republicans are only calling for spending cuts.

Both the Euro and the Euro zone seems to be deep in trouble with Greece topping the list at present followed by lesser counter parts like Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain nick named (PIIGS). Greece seems to be in locked horns over the populace unwilling to swallow the bitter pre-conditions of ECB/IMF lead rescue package of spending cuts and increase in taxes reasoning that the economy is already in dire straits with high unemployment. Monetizing their debt is not an option if they continue to stay un ECB as only ECB can print money and not the member states who typically finance their deficits by issuing Euro denominated bonds. The differential for CDS on German Bundesbank considered the gold standard in Eurozone now against Greek government bonds have been rising to proportions equating such bonds on par with junk bonds regardless of how the rating agencies peg them. This makes it very expensive for Greece to finance its deficit compounding the problem further.

Should the inevitable but not impossible event happens that Greece gets out of the ECB, the whole un-winding process back to their own currency is likely to be 10 times more complicated, painful and long drawn than when Greece entered the ECB. Firstly, valuation wise, the formulation, basis would be so wide ranging and controversial that market sentiments will likely rule the day. Perhaps break fuse would be enforced to prevent sudden unprecedented drop but such relief is only temporal and finally, the market still dictates its valuation. Secondly, with little or no bilateral or multilateral currency swaps agreement with partner countries, the new currencies is wide open and naked to predatory practices of short term market speculators. ECB is most likely to be provide this air-cover as part of the agreement but it is likely to be only effective for short to medium term as the politicians behind the ECB are likely to loose voter support especially in Germany and France. As the ECB is an economic and monetary union with each member state preserving their own political sovereignty, the election time table is on a staggered time line unlike in USA and this would buy the ECB some more time albeit a small measure.

Perhaps the national anthem for Japan should be changed to "God Saved our Prime Minister" in japanese language of course. Naoto Kan was on the brink of being booted out of office by a no confidence initiative when a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident hit Japan on 11th March 2010. The aftermath of both the earthquake and tsunami rebuilding is underway but the nuclear accident is still un-resolved with unpredictable future outcomes as of now. With the nation facing a national calamity, Kan stay in office was temporarily secured as he promises to step down once the situation is more conducive and stable for a power transition. Kan is still in office amidst smaller calls for him to step down. Although Japan is the 3rd largest economy GDP wise, it is drowning in a huge internal fiscal deficit luckily it has a strong external trade balance to buffer it. There are concerns that the disruption in her industrial output could hamper production capabilities of other countries because less forgiving supply chain measured in days instead of weeks or months. It is not uncommon for a product to consists of parts from at least a dozen of countries or more. The re-construction will add to the huge fiscal deficit and the benefit is less likely to be broad-based but more narrowly focused on construction related industries. This could also a cause of worry for the re-emergence of Yakuza power as many construction related companies are infested with Yakuza elements in some way like the post 1972 Kobe earthquake re-construction.

If history can be relied upon to repeat itself, we could most probably rest more easily about Japan and Europe as most world-wide recessions in recent past have their roots mainly in US save I think for the Asian and Latin American economic crisis.

Of bigger concern is the forth-coming shift in economic and military power. Of the USD 14.3 Trillion debt, about USD 1.3 Trillion is held by China. In addition, China is also a major holder of Euro zone government bonds. These were the results of trade surpluses accumulated by China. It is almost a no brainer that if the current growth and decline continues with China and USA, China's GDP will surpass that of USA in about 2020. On a per capita basis, pro-literate camps in USA argue that USA still reign supreme on a per capita basis and this is what counts most. The flip side to this 'per capita' argument will also mean that China's GDP has far more growth potential to tap on as development continues in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and subsequent tiers of urban areas. My parting worry is that shifts in economic power rarely goes on peacefully and could result sew the seeds for another potential world war yet again.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter
Safe Harbor
Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Brahms Violin Concerto Opus 77-The Heart Strings Concerto

Heart strings concerto because after listening about 5 versions of this piece, I was getting increasingly emotive. I was definitely not sure whether it is melancholy, romanticism, anger, triumph or perhaps a combination of them. Perhaps, I should change my will to have this played during my funeral, or over a romantic dinner or perhaps over a deeply philosophical reflective canvass. It did not help that Brahms did little commentary to help in the interpretation except dedicating to great hungarian violinist Joseph Joachim who was introduced to Brahms by another hungarian violinist Eduard Remenyi. Both violinists contributed much to this piece as Brahms was primarily a pianist but it was Joachim that premiered and gained most of the recognition for his contribution. My recommendation for enjoying this wonderful piece is against a dimly lighted room with a glass of full body and long finish french red wine and allow your mind and body to relax. Just in case, I am not an alcoholic.

Remenyi was no ordinary person and supported the Hungarian revolution of 1848-1849 and had to leave Hungary as a result. Career wise, though with less limelight than Joachim, he was a notably successful violinist with calling cards that included solo violinist to Queen Victoria. Remenyi was mostly remembered for dropping dead in the midst of giving a concert in San Francisco.

Although there is some evidence from various correspondents that Brahms intended it to be a 4 movement piece with a scherzo in between but the final product was a 3 movement piece. As with most Brahms music, there is little guesswork on the authoritative source as Brahms made sure only the final  piece remains and discarded all work in progress.

The cadenza has about 16 versions by musicians like Leopold Auer, Henri Marteau, Max Reger, Fritz Kreisler, Jascha Heifetz, George Enescu, Nigel Kennedy, Rachel Barton Pine and Ruggiero Ricci.  On this count, it could be classed as a virtuoso show piece rather than a symphonic work. A symphonic work is most probably more appropriate as it comes with a 90 bar introduction by the orchestra and also a pretty substantial melody line on the oboe in the second movement. When attending a concert of this piece, be prepared to see the solo violinist standing doing nothing there for a good part of the work.

Joan Chissell seems to imply that this concerto was written by Brahms to bridge the quarrel with Joachim for openly siding with Amalie Schneeweiss during her divorce proceedings in 1880. It is more likely for the another Brahms piece Double Concerto opus 102 composed in 1887 as an apology instead. Not exactly sure why Brahms remained single although he claimed that his love for music is too overwhelming to accommodate another love for a wife. However, he seems to be associated with wives of his friend like Clara Schumann in addition to Joachim's divorce.

The piece was premiered on 1st January 1879 by Joachim as soloist and Brahms conducting at the Leipzig Gewandhaus. There were two major views on the program for that concert based on historical records. This is not uncommon even in modern day concerts due to no-show or last minute logistical problems for the actual concert to vary with the program. The majority view was the concert went as per the program note with Beethoven Violin Concerto in D opus 61 for the first half and Brahms Violin Concerto also in D major opus 77 for the second half. This was most probably Joachim's idea to have a more familiar piece by Beethoven to pave the way for the new work as Brahms clearly preferred it the other way. The second view held by Charles O'Connell with the concert consisting of Beethoven 7th symphony and a handful of other minor works. This seems highly unlikely as it would have stretched beyond the normal duration of a concert.

My favorite movement is the subdued second movement with the woodwinds dominated introduction that moves my heart strings greatly. Another favorite part is the cadenza part of the first movement where the soloist can demonstrate their skills. The third movement provides a contrast to the first 2 movements but I cannot finger it as being celebratory, anger or triumph.

This piece is classed as one of the four great German violin concertos along with those by Beethoven, Mendelssohn and Bruch. As such, it is also recorded by many artists but I would limit it to those I have heard and personally like it. Actually the inclusion of Mendelssohn can be a joke as the name itself is as Jewish as can be but he converted away from Judaism though.

For the more recent recordings, the two pieces that comes to mind are Joshua Bell and Julia Fischer. Another recording that has been highly acclaimed is Anne-Sophie Mutter second recording with Kurt Masur in 1997 after the death of her husband in 1995 as one of the more emotive perhaps emitting from her personal grief. As for the more dated recordings, I like Nathan Milstein second recording with conductor Eugene Jochum and David Oistrakh recording with Pierre Fournier. I understand from literature that Milstein first recording in mono is supposedly one of the best but I cannot comment as I have not heard it. 

Here are the albums:

Peter Lye aka lkypeter

Safe Harbor
Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.