Abe 2 Able?

Prime Minister of Japan Abe has made a rare come back in the same seat that he occupied previously. The question on everybody’s mind is   the difference and similarity between Abe then and now. Having just started his tenure, he has made some surprising changes in a short space of time. Not only were they made domestically but also on internationally. This is quite surprising firstly because he belongs to the more conservative LDP party. Secondly, in Japanese political culture, behind the façade of a democracy imposed on them after world war two, Japan has been a monarchy for hundreds of years.

His recent visit to the Yasakuni Shinto Shrine that worships some of the worst second world war heroes/criminals trial by the international court of justice in The Hague. This has created much controversy on domestic and international front although he said that his visit is on a private basis and not as PM of Japan. On the international front, this visit tantamount to a certain extend that Japan isn’t totally repentant about the atrocities it has done during the second world war. It sort of endorses or justify that the war was not totally the fault of Japan. The Germans have surrendered totally and there is no monument to worship Hitler of the Third Reich as heroes. It could also be an overture to the international community that Japan is sovereign to do what it likes within reasonable global sand box.

On the domestic front, the visit is still highly regarded as a heroic act as a man of guts knowing full well the international implications. Secondly, it endorses his personal religious practice of Shintoism. This would likely win him more popular ground support but not all Japanese are like minded about it. Japan is still practicing revisionary history books about their second world war criminality or the lack of it much to the consternation of the international community especially China. Germany has come to terms and condemn their actions openly in their history books to remind future generations never to repeat it.

As if this is not enough to create controversy, he wanted the history text book to change references of ‘sex slave’ to ‘comfort women’ .  There  seems to be little differential between the two but the interpretation in Japanese is vast. The former implies that the women were forced into sex slavery against their own will. The latter seems to imply that it is not much different  between the comfort women and present day prostitute. After all prostitution is the oldest trade by some quarters of society.

There has been long standing sovereignty dispute of old over what China calls Diayu Island and Senkaku by the Japanese. Abe decided to up the ante by first having the island bought over from private ownership to state land and instructing its self defence force to safe guard their claim strongly and there had been a recent near miss between Japanese and Chinese fighter jets over the island with no weaponry exchange. These islands are mere land is in vast sea between Japan and China and have very little economic value unlike some of those in the South China Sea with minerals or oil or much sea or airspace implications.

These two issues have placed the newly elected Chinese XiPing in a tight corner as he cannot be too conferential or lax. So far, he has left the people of China to do the job for him by encouraging or putting minimal steps in stopping the riots against Japanese interest in China. China is totally able to quash the riots like it did in Tiananmen Square but XiPing is letting it go to appease the masses. Heads he wins tail you lose.

On the international front, this has also created a problem for USA who has viewed the Asia Pacific arena as being trilateral between China and its other communist allies as one. On the religion front with Malaysia and Indonesia especially after 911 and Japan with the rest of the countries as the third camp especially The Philippines, South Korea and Japan where USA has defence bases in. Suddenly the alliance has become more complex over night. China has been spending double digit percentage of their GDP on defence and now there is loud outcry for Japan to up its single digit self defence budget to match. After world war two Japan has enshrined into their constitution that they will not go to war and their defence force for self protection. To a certain extent, I would say this part of the constitution could have been placed on them under duress. The culture of violence is very in grained in them evidenced by their comics and computer games for adults. North Korea is on close watch but not on the radar as the largest threat is their ability to launch ICBMs tipped with nuclear head into USA; selfish to a certain extend.

On the economic front, Abe seems determined to get the economy out of the lost decade. He has ‘told’ not ‘advise’ the central bank to achieve a 2% inflation after the long deflation. In recent past, currency traders were also stunted by the dollar yen overnight exchange rate hitting a 4 year low and zig sawing between technical rebounds. This is caused by the Japanese central bank soaking up liquidity by buying back their bonds. Exchange rate is crucial in making Japanese exports competitive and this has ignited a small trade war with USA. The newly elected president Obama has not taken any action or met Abe face to face yet and is likely to leave it to the new incoming vice president. Democrats being less libertarian is likely to have their central bank intervene soon. Normally central banks do not like being told by the government as they view themselves as being independent.  Perhaps he is sounding the my way or no way to the rest who intend to stand in his way.

It seems that he has done little to deserved a memorial place in history during his first term and his current agenda is to be a historical change agent for better or for worse so help us God. Japan and Japanese are walkovers although she was decimated after world war two. Unknowing to the world, second world war has not ended but has change facade from a combative to an economic front.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter
Safe HarborPlease note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.