Economics Business Music Politics Altruism

Mark to Market in a Turbulent Market - Reasonable but not within Reasonable Doubt-April 2009

Bloomberg reports that "But the accounting change, which incorporated a proposal that would bring about US$ 900 Billion onto the lenders' book....." on the impact of such a change on the top 19 financial institutions in US which includes banks and insurance companies.

The whole practice of mark to market to instill transparent financial reporting seems reasonable and very prudent. During the mark to market process, assets are being assessed at the prevailing market value instead of the book value. Any differences that result from this exercise is taken into the profit and loss of the period normally as an extraordinary item either as a write-down or gain. The backbone of such an ancient practice rest upon the fact that the market is the correct reference point.

For listed assets, the practice seems more objective and transparent after one of the many prescribed valuation method is chosen and applied consistently based on a gambit of open, closing, average etc prices provided by the exchange and we have the valuation of the asset. For other forms of assets, objective 3rd party valuers are called upon to provide a valuation of the asset which seems less objective compared the listed assets. As for off balance sheet items, the valuation becomes more murky for some of the more sophisticated synthetic instruments, it takes a Phd in mathematics to unravel only the basis let alone the value and the counter party risks can go through the roof without a mediating exchange to guarantee and clear the trades and so as to allow market participants to trade on a blind basis as far as counter party risk is concerned.

Now that we have arrived that mark to market is a good discipline to adopt to ensure more transparent financial reporting, we shall now shift the burden of proof the other way round and for those opposing this cause to cast reasonable doubts especially its applicability in a turbulent market like what we are facing now.

Firstly, we have to proof beyond reasonable doubt that market price is a true reflection of value. On the surface, it seems that the battle is won hands down in a capitalistic view of things. Adam Smith's invisible hand and how the selfish pursuits of individuals will result in the overall goodness for everyone has not only been challenged in the communist and socialist camps but has also been quietly questioned in the capitalistic camp on its effectiveness. Chief among them is the recognition that in the short run, market prices might not be a a good indicator of value as the market does goes into a sticky phase at times before converging at a point where supply meets demands. In addition, it also pre-supposes that there are sizable diversified market participants and liquid enough market of both buyers and sellers to prevent the market from being cornered or being illiquid. One example being that it is not uncommon for some ETFs to trade against their underlying index. I believe there are enough evidence to cast reasonable doubt to the jury on this count.

Secondly, we shall examine how mark to market itself can serve as overly strong draft forces that could cause chronic declining markets to suffer a pre-mature self full-filling crash or for a bull market to spin inflation out of control through a inflationary spiral. However, it seems to work just fine when the market is relatively stable. It is liken to the doctor that is always not when needed most. Whether in a bull or bear market, mark to market is needed to have a realistic measure and a compass on where it is headed valuation wise. This is also where on a micro basis, mark to market is likely to become an innocent by stander but on a macro basis, it can be the very pill to poison either a bull or bear market. The practice of cross equity holding amongst companies is a fairly common phenomenon especially in countries like Japan. These mega corporations in Japan known as Zaibatsu are on the the surface competing with each other in the market place but a closer examination of their shareholding is likely to bring us into a spider web of complex cross shareholding which can make their share prices impregnantrable or stabilized in the short term but could grow into a bubble that would burst suddenly either way positively or negatively when valuations defy the most common logic. During the height of the Japanese real estate bubble, it was estimated that the value of the land on which the royal palace sits in Tokyo is equivalent to the value of all properties in the state of California.

There are various versions of this joke on engineers, lawyers and accountants in circulation and here is my recent construct. An engineer, lawyer and an accountant happened to visit an optician for a color test. As the optician use the flip charts which uses varying polka doted colors to form numbers to be deciphered. The first number on the flip chart was supposed to be the number 9. As these 3 gentlemen were no ordinary kinsman but were recognized as being captains in their field with their names on the signboard of their sizable firms and therefore did not give a straight forward answer to the optician like all and sundry. The engineer said that the number appears to more like a 6 instead of a 9. He reasoned that depending on how the optician has angled the flip chart. The optician reaffirm his answer as a 6 and told him that it was actually a 9 and he protested that it was the optician's fault for not positioning the flip chart properly and therefore the reference point was setup wrongly and it was not his fault. Next came the lawyer who said that it can either be a 6 or a 9 depending on whose point of view; yours or mine. The now impatient optician replied it is you who is having the test and not me and the lawyer interjected politely that it is a 9 in that case. The optician nudged him on saying that at least the lawyer is not color blind. The accountant baffled the optician when he told the optician that it can be any number or even an alphabet depending what the optician ordered.

Valuation, pricing and markets are so important for our capital market to function well that we sometimes need very basic commonsense to unravel the highly complex. We should not allow a change in accounting treatment to write US$900 into the books of the top 19 financial institutions in the US nor shall we allow the ancient straight jacketed rules to ruin fortunes and livelihood of many overnight. What we need is a return to good old commonsense.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter

Safe Harbor. Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Peter Lye

Social Safety Net Determinants

I use to think that social safety net is only relevant or practised effectively in states with a strong socialistic and communistic doctrine but as I give a bit more leeway to the meaning of social safety net to include activities of a philanthrophic, altruistic, religious, political and philosophical origin, the heaven seems to open before me.

Basal Dungeon Level/Poverty Line
My fundamental believe being that no matter how criminal, immoral or inhumane a person might be, there exists in each of us an intrinsic in-culpulability to help lift a fellow being from a basal dungeon to an acceptable level of survival as we each perceived it to be. The basal dungeon level is not an absolute concept but a relative one. Many economists and sociologists has attempted to define this as the poverty line along monetary and quantitative lines. This is very useful as it makes it possible to translate the concept into actionable points in determining how help should be apportioned. However, in distilling a concept into a quantitative illustration some important intrinsic qualitative elements are also removed in the process. Firstly, the basal dungeon level is a micro concept that is applicable on a personal or a monolithic social group rather than a macro concept with wider and more polarized applicability. An elderly wearing clothing consisting of a variety of patch work ( other than the fashion statement of the day ) in a relatively well off suburb like Rodeo Drive would most probably has reached beyond the basal dungeon level in that community to warrant a helping hand be it a contribution in terms of a coin drop of sort. However, in more impoverished parts of Africa, such a person is very unlikely to be offered help. Secondly, the concept is not the absolute or relative social distance between the person in need and the potential helper. It is not a absolute distance because a millionaire is unlikely to be moved to help a middle class person athough the absolute distance can be large, it is definitely not a charity case. Neither is a relative distance applicable because relativity would require us to define relative to what. Basal dungeon is basically a level that would trigger one group or person to help the other as a result of a conscience trigger. Thirdly, it is not a stable level that transcends time and space as the level changes over time in line with changes in the social political norms. However, the concept transcends time and space as it is there from the time of recorded history till now and not likely to vaporize into thin air in the foreseeable future.

Singapore
There is general believe that social safety belongs to the government alone and not body else. However, there are enough evidence both empirical and otherwise that this is not the case. I live in Singapore where the official ideology of socialist democrat is actually closer to capitalistic democrat as the leadership has make no apology in public that Singapore is a meritocratic practitioner in terms dividing the fruits of our labour. There is general perception that the social safety net is very thin in Singapore and the government has made it very clear to the populace that having seen the social safety net framework degenerate the motivation to work and the economy, Singapore shall not follow in similar light. However, over the years as the Singapore economy develops and accumulates fiscal surpluses to be in a position to afford some safety net, the government has over the years especially during the tenure of Goh Chok Tong as prime minister, dished out narrow and directed safety nets liken to a fishing by rods and line rather than broad based ones like fishing with nets. I see this as a deterministic shift in fundamental thinking as the government slowly but surely start to acquire heart ware. Some of these schemes includes the Medifund scheme to help the poor pay for the cost of essential medical care, dollar for dollar matching contribution to selected charities etc. One interesting means that the government has contributed to the social safety net in a less obvious showing which is I think is a deliberate attempt is though the innovative use of co-funded help schemes for various areas deemed to be much greater in need like innovative structuring of health care financing which might not be perfect but at least is affordable, of fairly high quality and not a drag on the economy unlike in the US where health care has become such a huge part of staff cost that it is a major factor affecting their economic competitiveness on a global basis. These Singapore cases underlines the fact that social safety net need not be narrowed to more direct transfer payments like unemployment payments or absolute freebies like free health care, education etc that more often than not lends itself to over consumption. On the note that such narrow schemes leaves a lot falling through the crack, my thinking is that like line and rod fishing, it is meant to bait and catch the more needful ones rather than a broad based safety net that would able to cast a wider net but would also end up with a lot of garbage in the process as well in the form of non-deserving recipients. Your choice.

Japan
In the case of Japan where I used to visit on a very frequent basis in my previous job where the visible governmental safety net is so thin that it is as good as none. In addition, the certain pride that the Japanese culture infuses into the work ethos makes it almost socially not acceptable for the populace to even be seen to be consumers of such safety net. In those years there during the early 1990s, there is a stark difference between Tokyo and New York as the streets are relatively void of beggars and homeless people compared to New York. It baffles me how was this possible with such a thin safety net. I slowly begin to understand that job for life philosophy results in less redundancies and retrenchments which I view is also a form of safety net that is enacted by way of social norms rather than governmental regulation. We can debate on end on the economic and business poison that such a system can breed but no safety net is without cost to the economy and society. One of the feature of the TOPIX which is the de-facto securities exchange of Japan and the largest in Asia, it has one of the lower beta compared to their counterparts in the west and one of the reason is the complex web of cross share holding between the giants of the economies call Zaibatsu and their subsidiaries as well as a very centralist macro economic planning by way of good coordination between the Ministry of International Trade and Industry ( MITI ) that even the Zaibatsu rarely go against MITI. One rare exception is Honda which was persuaded by MITI to concentrate on motorcycles and reduce their involvement in automobiles but has done almost the opposite.

Philanthrophy/GINI
Philanthrophy in terms of participation by percentage of the populace as well as percentage of the GDP, US beats Europe by a large margin. There are various studies done to explain this differential including factors like how the GINI index which measures the distribution of wealth, differentiating tax incentives for philanthrophy, old and new money as Europe tend to have more old money compared to US, immigrant society in US versus a more monolithic society in Europe. The factor that stands out is that on a ideological level, Europeans seems to be more socialistic but in practice on a personal level, US seems to put money where their mouth is rather than paying lip service. In response, the Europeans would argue that either the government is doing such a good job or they have contributed to a large part through taxes ( which are not voluntary whereas philanthrophy is ) and there so less need for private philanthrophy.

We all have a part though not always a deterministic one but a key part in shaping social safety net for our society either on an ideological or macro platform by our votes or privately on a personal and group basis. Give it a thought went you next see someone deserving of help.

Grandpa and Mantovani

It has been about a month since my grandpa passed on on 1st March 2009. The memory of him still lingers in my mind. He is one of the people whom I look up to and shared many hobbies and one of which is HiFi.

He inducted me into Hifidom at a tender age of about 8 or 9 years old. At the time, he had a Onkyo receiver with a Lenco turntable with an Akai open reel tape drive and I think a pair Heco german speakers. I use to spend some weekends at his place and saturday nights was where we listened. Some of the music that we listened to then was Mantovani and his string orchestra which are now difficult to find. I guess I was inducted into a virtual adulthood as I listen to the many old songs with him instead of the contemporary songs of my era. I still remeber that all I have at my own home was a mono portable Bigston cassette player but I treasure it as my parents went to great length to get me that as it was a big sacrifice to them already at that time.

Grandpa, I have one big regret in that as Asians, I was not very vocal in showing my love for you and I could have done more to show my love for you. I am going round town to find our favourite music like including James Last, Paul Mauriat, Ronnie Aldrich, Bert Kempfert, Diana Ross and many more. Give me time as such recordings are not easy to find. I have found some Mantovani and James last,Klaus Wunderlich and some ABBA. I shall also remember the old hifi shops that we use to go to like Atlas Sound, Martin Electronics, Hwee Seng, Tat Chuan, Ong Radio. Some of them are still around and I would go visit them also for old time sake.

I am playing Mantovani now as I write this blog in rememberance of you. Good night grandpa.

Your grandson Pete

Correcting cogenital ASD with Amplatzar Septal Occluder

My daughter was born with an Atrial Septal Defect of the heart ( ASD ) about 14 years ago. She is my first born and the event was one of mixed emotions. When I was told by her pediatrician that he suspected something could be wrong with her heart but was not very sure, I was stared at him in dis-belief as my daughter have the pink of health look. I am not sure if it helps that her pediatrician also actor on national TV occasionally as a hobby that I thought he was pulling my leg. His serious look says it all. I am very glad that he had the humility and bed side manners to inform me that he does not know enough about this area and would refer me to a pediatric cardiologist for further investigation. Before the door close behind us, he told me to take it easy for the time being as he is not very sure himself.

I took the earliest possible opportunity to see the pediatric cardiologist and although the wait was only the next day, it seems an eternity. Did not help that the clinic was pack on the day itself and there was a further wait at the clinic that was partly our fault as we arrived too early in all eagerness I think.

When our turn came to see the specialist, he read the referral letter and said let me have a listen at her heart and I kept intently quiet and it helped that my daughter was able to stay still for him to hear her heart properly through his stethoscope. My parents were outside the consult room in all anxiousness as she is their first grandchild and the jewel in their eyes. After the several moment to golden silence, he sat back and started speaking. He told me that he did hear something unusual but that the stethoscope is not the most accurate instrument for this and would proceeded with a cardiac echo gram after we have sedated my daughter followed by an ECG and some blood test.

While inside the echo gram room, I could see him moving a probe lined with jelly like cream and watching screen and hearing the sound of the heart and speaking in some strange language to his nurse aide who was taking his dictation. It took about 20 minutes and came the news that he had seen an ASD of about 5mm in my daughter's heart. He re-assured us that there is no near term danger and told us about the standard ASD precautions that have to be taken for my daughter. On treatment options, we were given the do nothing for now and monitor closely through monthly followed by quarterly and then yearly checks. The other option was to close the whole using open heart surgery which was the only option at the point in time and given the size and the fact that it was largely asymptomatic in my daughter's case, it was not worth the risk of open heart surgery. Moreover, there was some chance of the hole closing by itself.

In all these years, the periodic monitoring has been an emotional roller coaster ride as the reading went from 5 mm to 15 mm and we also witnessed the progression of echo gram technology as it went from monochrome to color and grew in sophistication.

When my daughter reached teenage, I can see that she love sports and outdoors activities quite a fair bit and did not feel that life has been fair to her to not be able to participate fully in these activities and some of which she is quite good at in my opinion. After further considerations and the availability of a safer method to close up the ASD, decision was reached together with my daughter as I believe very much in democracy and practice it at home with my two kids to the dis-quiet of some parents in my part of the world. The pros and cons were discussed, debated and googled on no end until we decided to take the decision.

On the day of the surgery, it was done though a minimally invasive procedure. After measure of the size, shape and location of the ASD using a catheter, the cardiologist came of out of the surgery room to inform that the hole is about 7mm and fairly regular sized and a good candidate to closure using a 15MM device. We agreed and the device was implanted into her heart to close her ASD through a catheter. She was sent to the ICU as a standard procedure after the procedure for a few hours of monitoring and by about 2pm, we were talking to her through she was a bit dazed from the after effects of general anesthesia considering that she had the procedure done at 8am the same day. Just before dinner the same day, she was transferred back to a normal ward and was heartily having her dinner. Being a foodie herself, we took her additional orders for special food especially of donuts, cup cakes etc. She had two lady classmates at her bed side during dinner and they were having the usual teenage chatter to no end and parents were secondary. She was discharged the next day noon after echo gram by doctor and the operation site for the minimally invasive procedure was healing well. She spent the next 10 days at home more so as a precaution as school can be a bit of a challenge as her high school has kids of between 12 to 18 years old and it is not very easy to prevent physical knocks.

Today marks the 15th day of her surgery and she is like any normal child and in about six months time if her own heart tissue grows over the device properly to anchor it in place, she is good for a fully normal life except for some precautions relating to MRI.

I am sharing as a sort of patient emotional support effort for patients with similar situations from a real life account. I am not a doctor and therefore, what is shared is purely from a layman parent perspective. The second reason for sharing this is also to thank her two cardiologists that took care of her. The first one starting when she was a baby and the second one that did the closure procedure for her. Oh we must not forget about the pediatrician that acts for a hobby who started us on this healing journey. It so happens that both cardiologists have a common family name YIP. I am not at will to disclose their names as I have not obtained prior permission. When the 3 doctors read this and if you recall, a special thank you to from patient and parent and our heart felt thanks for the good clinical care, rational advice and emotional support.

Cheers,,, Pete

Dichotomy Between Private and Public Thoughts as a Measure of Pluralism

Recognizing the dichotomy that exists between private and public thoughts suddenly caught my attention as I sorted out the number of occasions in which I myself has on a conscious level attempted to keep my private thoughts from the prying eyes of the public either through a non-participative level or even betray it publicly through sheer denial or expressing a contrarian thought. The frightening thing is that such behavior has at time been a placid involuntary reaction that bypasses the cerebral much like how my eye lids shut in reaction to bright lights. It is only on conscious reflection that I realizes it. So this dichotomy between private thought and public thought is a reality.

Pluralism takes many forms like cultural, political, value etc. I am pursuing pluralism in a broader sense of existence, acceptance and real tolerance of differing, alternative or opposing thoughts within a society.

What are the linkages between the two and why the degree of dichotomy between private and public thought is one of the many means to measure pluralism within a society?

Firstly, in a more pluralistic society, the dichotomy between private and public thoughts would be narrower as there is more tolerance and therefore removes one of the many barriers for transparency. The populace would be more willing to go public on their private thoughts as the repercussions for doing so is less damming.

Secondly, on a more positive note, a more pluralistic societal norm also tend to reward divergent thoughts and therefore provide a more fertile landscape for divergent views to not only grow privately but also to come out in the open more readily.

Thirdly, there is a difference between pluralistic society and a multi-variate society. A multi-variate society is a society where people differentiated along various lines like race, religion etc exists in a melting pot together and does not necessarily means that it is a pluralistic society. More often than not, a multi-variate society tend to be less pluralistic and tend to exhibit a synthetic tolerance because such divergence without pluralism provides for a potential flashpoint for societal unrest. Therefore, it is not uncommon for laws on equal opportunism, affirmative activism and legal framework to diffuse such differential. Most of these tend to narrow the opportunity for individual to go public with their private thoughts especially if it would lead to trespassing of the legal framework. Synthetic pluralism tend to thrive in such societies with strong fault lines that could fractal easily. Such societies also tend to be either a migrant society that resulted from a convergence of a multi-variate nature often without a strong sense of nationhood as such values takes time to take root. Sometimes, such multi-variate society can also be the result of artificial political delineation that forces such a formation or the close proximity with a history of violence between them.

Pluralism is not necessarily a final destination nor a nirvana to be pursued with an endless wit but a form of ideal with its root primarily from philosopher Isaiah Berlin.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com

Safe Harbor. Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Peter Lye

Economic Recession-Inflationary Spiral vs Confidence Crisis-Singapore

The written world is full of recessionista that I thought hard about contributing further to it? The markets seem to react to bad news with a vengeance and good news is being question marked all over that it normally barely moves the market. In such a climate, the down draft is definitely going to be stronger that the bullish tendencies.

Great economists like Alan Greenspan has always put forth evil that lurks behind the inflationary spiral as the most difficult to tame and goes all out to combat it with the weapon of choice which is the FED discount rate. The basic premise being that price stability is important for the growth of the economy in the longer run. That I fully agree with.

However, the reverse which is hardly spoken about is what I would term as a confidence crisis like what we are very much experiencing right now. It is almost like the mirror image of the inflationary spiral ; business expect revenue to be bad therefore hold back on their investment and staffing level leading to lower business volume both upstream and downstream. The consumer that expects to have a rough ride in terms of retrenchment, pay cuts etc will also scale back on spending and all this would translate itself into self full-filling recessionary overtone.

Between the two evils, I believe confidence crisis is the larger of the two as a consumeristic outlook is easier to tame and we have many weapons in our arsenal to fight the inflationary spiral tooth to nail.

In a confidence crisis, our ability to spend our way out of a recession is hampered by issues like shrinking multiplier effect in a recession and for a small and fairly open economy like Singapore, there are further issues of leakages as we tend to import almost everything and the domestic economy is of limited size and amplitude thus eroding the classical economics virtue postulated by Keynesian.

Moving over to the monetarist viewpoint, it also suffers from episodes like liquidity traps like what is happening in Japan where the interest rate is nearing zero and monetarist end up with a very blunt tool to fight the confidence crisis. There are of course other policy options like trying to increase the velocity of currency by having the government help the banks to under write part of the credit risk in the hope of the banks being more prepared to extend credit to the businesses and consumers to lift us out of the confidence crisis. A first round of such policy has been put in place in Singapore with limited success as bankers hardly budge on easing credit as they have learnt how fast toxicity can build up in their balance sheets which will at some point in time needs to be de-leveraged in a painful manner like now.

Perhaps, it is during times like these that we need strong leadership with an equally strong mandate from the people not only measured by the polls but by how the leadership can inspire the populace to a greater cause in life and paint a believable light at the end of the tunnel or a rainbow after a storm. Such leaders are normally born and not bred in ivy leagues of the world. Although I do not condone what Adolf Hitler has perpetuated during the second world war, there is much to be learned from his ability to rally people to a cause. Another good example is Robert F. Kennedy but it is unfortunate that his was short lived. Winston Churchill; the wartime prime minister of Britain was another with great ability to rally the populace. Perhaps, this time, Barack Obama would save us.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com

Mozart Clarinet Concerto K622-The Famous One

I was introduced to this piece by my colleague and lets just call him by his nick name "Ah Lau" as I have not sought permission to include his name. He is far from being what a typical "Ah Lau" and has a strong interest in classical music and also engages in bird photography. A cultured person in that sense.

I did not know that this 3 part clarinet concerto has been used on numerous occasions as a them song of several movies especially the 2nd movement in Adagio. This could partially explains the familiarity of this piece with the general populace especially the second movement and it is definitely one of the many good means to get introduced to classical music.

This concerto is very lyrical and easy on the ears. In a sense, it is like the twin brother of Carb Sav in wine terms as it is difficult to go wrong and difficult to be very right as well. Please do nor mistaken that this parallel is to belittle Mozart but in praise of his wisdom and artistic capability to appeal to both the so called cultured and the general populace.

I own a total of 5 versions of this piece and the 6th is borrowed from "Ah Lau". Here are my humble comments about the recordings.

1. This recording made by Wiener Philharmoniker under the baton of the famous Leonard Bernstein with Peter Schimdl on the clarinet. It is a good display how a strong conductor could impose his interpretation on the piece. It actually helps a lot that this concerto does not have a cadenza where the soloist takes centre stage. Very coherent recording.

2. The second recording is an old one by conductor Thomas Beecham with soloist Jack Brymer and the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra accompanying. This is one of the slower interpretation and it could be that in that age, it is played that way. The recording moved me and it fairly emotive in character in my humble opinion.

3. Karl Leister partnered Neville Marriner conducting his Academy of St Martin in the Fields. Just the opposite of the former piece; this recording appear a bit rushed especially in the first movement. The saving grace is the second movement where is good balance of technical brilliance and lifting the spirit out of the piece experience if I may say.

4. If lyricalism is your cup of tea, you must listen to this recording by soloist Jacques Lancelot and conductor Jean-Francois Pillard. It is a very soothing recording to play as background music while you work especially the second movement. I can put the second movement on repeat for many times and not get sick of it.

5. If you want to hear the soloist on the pedestal even in a piece without a cadenza, it would have to be the recording by soloist Martin Frost, conductor Peter Oundijan taking care of Amsterdam Sinfornia. Martin Frost definitely shows who is the boss in this recording as it was very soloist and clarinet centric. The orchestra seems just to play a small accompaniment to Martin Frost brilliant interpretation of the piece. I do find it overwhelming at times though.

6. This last piece loaned to me by "Ah Lau" with Anton Pay on the clarinet and Christopher Hogwood doing his stuff with The Academy of Ancient Music is my favorite as it appears to be sonically well balance even though the Martin Frost recording being an SACD is supposed to be better but the miking could be too pronounced perhaps due to the close miking for the soloist in the Frost recording. In addition, the soloist, conductor seems to be one spirit in this recording.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com

Age of Intelligence

Economically speaking, man's journey through the centuries has been classified into a few broad ages by economists.

It started with the Agrarian age where the economy was centered around agriculture and farming.

With the invention of the steam engine, the world was propelled into the industrial age. During this period, the emphasis was around the the ability to mass produce quickly and cheaply with the steam engine and subsequently other form of engine to leverage the productivity of mankind. The notable events include Henry Ford's first mass produced Model T car.

The birth of the computer brought us into the information age where the adage information is power reigns supreme. The information age not only brought with it the power of information but it also transformed thinking from a product based to a service based denominator as it is one of the earlier industry to venture into the outsourcing paradigm. Instead of buying a printer, ink to print reports, in the the service age, it would be buying a printing service that would provide the printer and ink, maintenance service for the printer and at times even the paper and charge on the basis of number of printed pages.

This was soon followed by what is known as the experiential economy championed by economist Joseph Pine and James Gilmore who wrote 'The Experience Economy' in 1999. In it, they chronicled the development of our economy from the agrarian, industrial, service and finally to what they termed as the experience economy using the analogy of how birthdays has meant different things through the ages. In the Agrarian economy, it centered on the flour needed to make the birthday cake. In the industrial age where things are largely mass produced, it was on buying the pre-mixed ingredients to reduce the time needed to bake the cake. As it progresses to the service age, it was likely to be buying a ready made cake and having it delivered as a service to the birthday venue. With the further transformation of the economy, the birthday is likely to entail a celebration at a fast food joint like Macdonald with organized birthday games, food and a magic show to entertain the kids and the cake is thrown in free.

As economic distinctions progresses and becomes less tangible, we begets the question on what shapes the economic offering of our day? Having pondered in it for a while, I postulate the age of intelligence. While the marriage of telecommunications and computers which herald us into the age of information and the 'Death of Distance' as written by Frances Cairncross. Knowledge on tap being available almost anywhere, anytime in the abundance that puts information available on the internet in terms of terabytes upon terabytes and search engines like google and yahoo making finding knowledge easier. Surely information and its smarter descendant knowledge can no longer be a formidable differentiator. If I need to find out which year George Washington was born and with ready access to internet, almost anybody with some basic information age skills can tell you that it is 1732.

Welcome to the age of intelligence whereby the key differentiator is intelligence in itself and no prize for this answer. How is intelligence different from all its predecessors?

Using part of the economic distinction model developed above by Pine & Gilmore, I would use an old world analogy to describe the this new paradigm and thereafter add further dimensions which is central to the understanding of the age of intelligence.

In terms of economic function, we have seen the progression from extract in the agrarian, make in the industrial age, deliver in the services age,stage in the experiential age and perhaps discover in the knowledge age. In the age of intelligence, it is likely to be problem solving. Problem solving differentiates itself from discovery knowledge in the additional dimension of applying the relevant knowledge to solving a problem. In the old adage of knowledge is power on the job, it not longer applies as in the age of intelligence, the differentiating factor would lie not only in the ability to acquire knowledge which is fast eroding in the age of ubitquous internet which makes knowledge readily available on tap but forming solutions through intelligent use of knowledge.

In the agrarian age where the produce is mainly farm based, the time dimension becomes critical as most products are fungible. Into the industrial age where the emphasis is on mass production of durables like cars, consumer white goods etc, the time dimension becomes less important as the produce are more tangible. The transition into the service economy brings back the importance of the time dimension to a higher level of criticality whereby the produce is intangible and cannot be stored. What is not consumed is lost along the time continuum. With memorable experience as the hall mark of the experience economy, the time dimension sort of flip flop back some what but on slightly different scheme in terms of sustainability after consumption. The age of intelligence is a combination of permanence and fungibility. Permanent in the sense that once a solution to a problem is found, it can be readily applied over and over again and fungible because the problem is also likely to change requiring new solution.

Mother nature was the centre of attention in the agrarian time from the condition of the soil to the weather and the natural mix of animal and plant habitat that determines the produce of the day. So the saying of the day is let nature takes it course as man kind is very much at the mercy of nature. As men progress into the industrial age, destiny became more deterministic as the major produce of that period centre on products that are less dependent on mother nature. Perhaps as an antidote to the wave of similarity that mass production of the industrial age generates, the service era majors on the customizability as opposed to 'me too' syndrome of mass production. In order to appeal to the heighten experiential senses of the experience economy, personalization wins the day as emphasis is on being able to create a unique and long lasting experience for the consumer. Learnability becomes the key in the knowledge age but as we turn the corner into the age of intelligence, assimilability of knowledge becomes key as knowledge itself does not transform but once assimilated into its eco system or context, it illuminates.

The role played by buyer and seller also plays an important transformation through the different economic era as highlighted by Pine and Gilmore above. To take this concept further, the role of buyer and seller ended with that of a stager and guest respectively in the experiential economy. In the knowledge economy, the seller is likely to be a patent, copyright or trademark owner playing the role of a licensee and the consumer a licensor as originality of knowledge is key. However, in the age of intelligence, the seller is likely to be a provider and the seller a client like in the service economy. The key differentiator from the service economy is the emphasis on uniqueness rather than quantifiability and repeatability.

We would explore the implication of the age of intelligence in my next installment of writing.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com

Max Bruch Violin Concerto No 1 Op 26 in G minor-Financial Reward

Much has been said that most artist die a pauper only to have their works attain popular acclaim after their passing. There is a slight twist to this fairly popular violin concerto by German romantic composer Max Bruch or rather that his violin concerto which was his most famous work of the about 100 compositions that he wrote during his lifetime of about 82 years. He actually saw this work attain popularity during his lifetime but he was not to be sufficiently rewarded for it as he sold the rights to this concerto for a one time payment as it was not well received during its premiere as he could have wanted to cash in on whatever he could lay his hands on financially. Having a lawyer for a father Max Bruch must have appreciated the consequences of his outright sale of his work though his father did not practiced law for a significant period and spent a large part of his career as a police chief.

Another significant aspect is that he reached a career fork very early in his life of having to choose between painting or music as he was talented in both. It seems that he made a right decision in choosing music. The other significant part is his love for violin although he started his music career on the piano. He once remarked that the violin can sing a melody better than a piano and that melody is the soul of music. He composed a total of 3 violin concertos but it was his first violin that sealed his fame as a composer.

On his ancestral roots, there has been some speculation that he has a Jewish bloodline instead of Germanic bloodline for which he was very proud of. This was partly due to one of his composition Kol Nidrei that has some hebrew over tones. He went to great length to refute this and he was also a Bismarck sympathizer in terms of his plan to achieve unification of Rhineland.

Although the concerto was set against a minor key it was more melodious than melancholic in nature. In fact, some would say that there seems to be some parallel between this violin concerto and that of Mendelssohn's violin concerto which is also keyed in minor. This could have it roots as Mendelssohn was not only his contemporary but a good friend of his. Being a flag bearer for romantic era style of music, he vehemently resisted the contemporary 'Neudeutsche' of his time which promoted a darker and more complex style as opposed to his more traditional and folk style.

I have the following recording of this concerto:

1.Two of which is by violinist Yehudi Menuhin. One of which is with the London Symphony Orchestra conducted by Adrian Boult and the second accompanied by London Philharmonia Orchestra under the baton of Walter Susskind.

2. Soloist Ruggiero Ricci with London Symphony Orchestra conducted by Piero Gamba

3. Kyung-Wha Chung with Klaus Tennsedt conducting London Philharmonic Orchestra

4.Janine Jansen with Riccardo Chailly conducting Gewandhausorchester.

5. David Oistrakh with London Symphony Orchestra conducted by Lovro von Matacic

6.Shlomo Mintz with Chicago Symphony Orchestra conducted by Claudio Abbado.

Of these recordings, my favorite is the version by David Oistrakh as his interpretation seems to be the most melodic of them all in my opinion. Janine Jansen plays it in a very emotive manner while both recordings of Yehudi Menuhin is most probably technically the most faultless.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com

Safe Harbor
Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Friedman vs Keynes Joke

"With Milton Friedman as your economic adviser, you have nothing to worry about the threats from a few hundred million hostile Arabs."

by John Kenneth Galbraith ( A Keynesian champion ) answering an Israeli reporter on his view on the appointment of Milton Friedman as an economic adviser to Israel.

Tchaikovsky Symphony No 4 Op 36-Fate and Commentary

Of the 6 symphonies that Tchaikovsky composed, it is quite common to group 1-3 as the first group and 4-6 as the second group. The 4th symphony here presents a defining departure from the 1st group of symphonies in that Tchaikovsky starts to be confident of his own style to depart away from the strict Germanic symphony style and combined it with the more tuneful romantic era. In fact the 1st movement is quite long at about 20 minutes that some would classify the first movement as a symphonic poem with 3 additional movements instead of a symphonic work with 4 movements.

The second unique feature of this symphony being that Tchaikovsky actually penned an accompanying commentary to the composition which is rather rare and one of the reasons could be that he is dedicating this symphony to his patroness Nadezhda von Meck and the commentary could be something requested by her. This act like a sort of a double edged sword. For one, we have access to the original intent of the composer to the various passages. However, it also constrained subsequent music interpreters the latitude to impute their own reading of the symphony. The beauty of symphonic work lies partly with the mystique and multifaceted properties that makes it evergreen.

Thridly, there is some parallel between the symphony and Beethoven's Symphony No 5. Both start with a signature motif of ta ta ta ta that is repeated in various form throughout the symphony. Tchaikovsky himself made mention of this parallelism and also gave a an explanation that both symphonies are about fate and both happen to be fairly melancholic and penned in the minor scale.

As with most artistic works, its premier at Saint Petersburg by Nikolai Rubenstein was not very well received. Because Tchaikovsky was not present at the premier, he only had second hand account from Rubenstein that the symphony was well played and keeping him in the dark about comments from some critics that found the symphony brilliant in parts but less impressive overall. However, this symphony has grown in popularity that it is quite a staple in the programs of many concerts as well as being widely recorded as well.

This symphony was also composed against Tchaikovsky personal backdrop of his failed marriage and could therefore account for the strong measure of melancholic nature. The other famous piece that Tchaikovsky composed right after this work was his all time famous and only violin concerto and perhaps there are shades of this symphony present in his violin concerto.

The few recordings that I have are as follows:

1.Neeme Jarvi conducting Gothenburg Symphony Orchestra

2.Kurt Sanderling conducts Leningrad Symphony. Sonically not as good as on initial hearing as it was done in MONO but after a few listening, my opinion of MONO recording begin to change.

3.Karajan with Berlin Philmoniker because Karajan is also known to be a Tchaikovsky authority. You cannot fault his technically prudence approach to this piece tempered with a good dose of emotions.

Of these recordings, the version by Neeme Jarvi is sonically better that the other two being a more recent recording and also being done on SACD. However, my favorite is still the interpretation by Karajan seems to bring out the melancholy in the piece very well without being technically too off mark in my humble opinion.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter

Free Market and Economic Tsunami of 2008

In October 2008, I wrote an article about Lehman Brother fallout and in it, I quote "In 1993, the much respected Alan Greenspan went before the US Congress to testify in his capacity as chairman of the Fed that the government should leave the credit derivative market to its own devices as it serves to transfer risk from those who cannot afford to carry it to those are willing to take the risk for a price.". Being a free market advocate, 2008 has been a year of much unlearning and humbling acknowledgement that free market is not all that perfect and to coin Adam Smith's famous "Invisible Hand" as the be all and end all in terms of market pricing except that he also have a caveat on the hazards of monopolies undermining the greater good of mankind. Milton Friedman in his book "Free to Choose" strongly advocated that "markets always work and only market works" and therefore doubt "government intervention" could ever serve a useful purpose.

All these economists are my heroes and I still do believe them to be fundamentally correct in their posture on world economics but would place the following caveats in light of the events unfolding before our eyes in 2008.

Firstly, in light of the break down of the credit derivative market bring down with it Lehman Brothers as well as AIG, I think that Greenspan could be wrong about leaving the credit derivative market un-regulated. I think there is a marked difference between market regulation and market intervention although the two seems to be similar but their differential makes its practice a world of difference. Regulation has to do with setting up rules of engagement for market participants, increasing price transparency and reducing product differentiation factors, ensuring proper market clearing and making buyers and sellers 'blind' in terms of counter-party by guaranteeing counter-party ability to full-fill the trade. This is normally done through a regulator like SEC and an exchange like NYSE. It is important to note that the regulator and exchange should preferably be two separate entities to ensure that they do not land into a conflict of interest situation. In addition, the regulator like SEC must be government controlled but the exchange like NYSE can have its ownership in the hands of the market. This is what I meant by governmental market regulation. Government market intervention on their hand is the participation of the government either directly or indirectly as a market participant. Examples of which are government ownership of enterprises that provides goods that are also provided by private enterprises. The key here is that the goods can or are already provided by private enterprise and therefore, there is very little reason for governmental participation in the market. The exception would be 'public goods' which Milton Friedman also agreed should be produced by government. Conceptually, public goods such as policing, fire safety, major infrastructure that is enjoyed by all and sundry in the economy like parks, roads, fire service,education etc and are necessary for a community to function properly.

Secondly, there is an issue of time frame by which these concepts are tenable. In most if not all cases, the economic concepts will apply in the longer run rather than in the short run. There is general consensus in the economic community that in the shorter run, there could be price disturbances and market imperfection. However, the period of such shorter term market imperfections in terms of the intensity of the impact as well as its duration could make such models untenable as the economic tsunami during such period could have far reaching social and political impact that could de-stabilize a society beyond redemption. Chief amongst the shorter run social ills like unemployment and stagflation could destroy a whole generation before time could be in time to heal it. Economists have long recognized these situations and even labelled them as business cycles. In the past century, we have witnessed a few of these major ones that like in the years 2008, 1998, 1973 and 1929. Of course there are some who will argue that such cycles were made worse by inappropriate governmental intervention for example the monetarist camp and the keynesian camp on whether pump priming and controlling money supply as key to ridding out such cycles successfully. For the free market to always work and the market is the only workable solution, we will need a solution to the issue of business cycle for which there is no common consensus on what is right and workable.

Thirdly, we come to the issue to what is the correct and equitable distribution of economic wealth and woes in a society. Gini's coefficient is commonly used to measure the dispersion of income in a society. The greater the coefficient, the greater the gap between the rich and the poor in a society. Of late, there has been a re-thinking of Gini's coefficient accuracy in portraying the state of the rich poor gap as it measures only income and not wealth but this a minor detail.

Generally, we can see that on a global basis, there seems to be little significant trend pointing to an upward or downward trend of this coefficient but we do note that for USA which is one of the louder proponent of free market that the coefficient has risen over time since world war II. It is also interesting but not surprising to note that when economies like China move from centrally planned to free market, we can see a marked increase in the coefficient as the free market economy takes shape over time. An interesting thing point to note that the coefficient for the Nordic countries has been on a downward trend and these are the countries with one of the higher effective tax rate globally. What I see missing is a correlation between the Gini coefficient and business cycle and perhaps I should take up this challenge when my circumstances allow me to. However, to me a lack of demonstrable correlation between business cycle and the Gini coefficient is worrying enough as I would expect the Gini coefficient to be southward bound in tandem with the business cycle as non-linear or a northward bound Gini coefficient would mean that the poorer shouldering a larger share of the economic downturn of a business cycle. This could actually have societal instability if the impact of on the poorer segment becomes unbearable or there is a general lack of economic equalizers in terms of either transfer payments,estate duties or equal opportunity rules in terms of access to education and employment opportunities that allow for mobility both ways across the rich poor continuum.

In concluding, I would only say that although free market might not be perfect, it is most probably the best that is available to us. The secret lies in how we fine tune this wild animal of the free market to behave in a socially acceptable to all humanity.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter.blogspot.com