Oslo Carnage-Singaporean Perspective

93 lives vaporized in a matter of about 90 minutes in Oslo on 22 July 2011 because 32 year old Anders Behring Breivik wanted to ensure that the authorities gave his beliefs the necessary attention. This event would change the Norwegian way of life like what 911 did to USA. Instead of taking his own life, he allowed himself to fall into the hands of the law and face the prospect of 20-30 years behind bars if convicted and accorded the full force of the law as Norway has no death penalty. Perhaps he wanted his day in court to promote his far-right ideology as by default, court proceedings are open to public and journalist. However, from his indictment proceedings which is unprecedentedly a closed one, his newsprint hours in court might not be that full. It was a surprising move as closed proceedings are the norm mostly in cases involving minors or of a sexual nature. Even the 911 court proceedings were open in US.

His actions are definitely pre-mediated over a period of 9 years but it most probably would not qualify for first degree murder as the victims are sort of random in nature. As of now, they prosecutors have not actually decided on what to nail Breivik and court has allowed a special 8 weeks of solitary confinement where only his lawyer is allowed access to give the prosecution more latitude in the conduct of the investigation and finally arriving at a charge. Perhaps extraordinary events call for extraordinary measures. On a lighter note on this very grave issue, perhaps it is a sort of reverse class action.

This event set me thinking on what can Singapore and Singaporean learn and take precautionary measures beyond policing and intelligence spheres but also on public, political, economic arenas and also rethink the meaning of justice beyond the restrictive meanings of those in the lawyering and judiciary profession. Perhaps also the parliament where our laws are made.

Punitive Measures
As a maturing society, we ought to come to terms that no amount of effort is enough to totally prevent such risks. On the same note, much can be done by our government and society acting in concerted effort to minimize the risks. To throw caution to the wind and do nothing just because it is an impossibility would amount to gross negligence.

The maximum punishment that laws in various countries differs widely but it can be classed as 3 broad categories. Death sentence by which ever means, time limited life sentence which can vary from 20-30 years and life sentence till death with no time limit. Various comparative especially between death sentence and life sentence and its impact on serious crime rates has not been totally conclusive that death sentence reduces serious crime rates. This is not a pro-life debate and one thing we can conclude that death sentence appears to be a cheaper alternative for the government in terms of managing such criminals. There is some co-relation that most first world nations consider the death sentence as cruel and so do away with it but in many states in USA, the death sentence is still the order of the day for serious crimes. It is rather conclusive that in almost all countries, the law is sufficient or perhaps too punitive in some cases.

Besides the law,the co-joining factors relates to policing and judiciary process. Being mostly libertarian at heart, I think that we need to titrate the level of policing to a sufficient level to have an acceptable level of public safety and law and order and not be driven to the extreme of being a police state with little or no freedom for the citizenry. This is a complex issue that the government in consultation with the citizenry must decide not only on the level of policing but also the matter and form as well.

Judiciary process is a very loaded item and I would be very careful else I run foul of the law. Basically, the two main categories are a judge based or jury consisting of the citizenry. There is no conclusive evidence of one over the other. I stand very economized here.

In terms of punitive measures, I am of the opinion that we overall fairly sufficient altogether there have been some controversies on both end of the spectrum. We had to contend with and grow up as a nation with regards to the escape whilst under Singapore custody of a key potential terrorist element Mas Selamat arrested by the police of our neighboring country Malaysia succeeding man hunting down Mas Selamat and extraditing him back to Singapore. On the other hand, we have also been criticized by NGOs like Amnesty International for Internal Security Act which allows for detention without trial. I recognized that this act is a caricature left behind by the British that used to be our colonial masters. I also see reasons for not dropping or changing this Act as Singapore was facing substantial struggle from communists or communalists elements both internally as well as externally like the Communist Party of Malaya and fast breeding of communism in our corridor like Vietnam, Cambodia and Burma with their larger over lords of Russian and China. This dispensation is most probably passe with communism running out of style as well as being reformed greatly like in China. Let not in our haste for popularism throw the baby out with the bath water by eliminating the Internal Security Act altogether but can explore changes to it to fit the political climate. USA enacted the Patriot Act and created a Homeland Security Bureau in reaction to 911 and perhaps having the backbone of an Act of similar nature, we can revise the Act instead.

As in all things, we must sought for balanced and well considered position rather than a knee jerk and more extremists measures. No doubt time is of the essence but we can always have temporary legislation subject to further review with a given time frame perhaps. The Patriot Act in USA is not without detractors internally as well as fear of turning the country into a police state or fear of misuse by those in powers for their own ends.

Social Glue-GINI index and Social mobility
There are research evidence co-relating high GINI with either terrorist activity, revolt and war. I see social mobility as part being a big part to address high GINI index overtime. It is my worry here as a Singaporean that our GINI index has been increasing even with a growing GDP. I am all for a meritocratic value system but it must be tampered with a humane heart and safety net for the those at the bottom of society as well as those that falls through the strict rules of the safety net. I know that the current PAP government is very resolute in not encouraging a lethargic socialist populace by holding back on expanding the social safety net. I am very concerned in this arena as a widening rich poor gap coupled with fairly porous immigrant labour laws which is a major part of the ingredients capitulating into the Oslo carnage.

Back on social mobility, history has shown that it is easy for a meritocratic society to transform into a class stratified society.  The rich and powerful overtime will be tempted to change the rules of the game to preserve their place in society. Our now retired but still influential statesman Lee Kuan Yew recently was quoted by the press that he will feel sorry for Singapore if we were to have a two party government granted he has various merits for a one party system. History has proven in Animal Farm speak that absolute power corrupts absolutely. This is a very common tendency based on the strength of self interest as stated by Adam Smith. Many have mis-quoted or misunderstood his self interest for selfishness and if we look deeper, there is a big differential between self interest which is lawful, moral and normal to selfishness which can disintegrate a society into the vestiges of hell surely though it might not be immediately.

We have to be true to ourselves that in the same breathe that we speak of meritocracy, we cannot deny the fact that blood the flows in us is thicker than water. This is why I was very concerned when the PAP government decided to scrap Estate Duty totally as estate duty is there as one of the tools to guard against poverty trap. In addition, we ought to watch out and arrest the spread of nepotism as we push towards an equal opportunity society as it is a very human tendency to do so. The spread of the tax burden is also a very key policy instrument and I am in favor of an across the board consumption like our GST as a good and efficient tax practice as it is easier to administer, has fewer tax loopholes as well as encouraging savings for future versus consumption. GST also tend to have a negative effect of shifting the tax burden towards the poor as generally, the poor will save less than the rich as a percentage of their income. To add injury, we have also lowered corporate tax as well as skewed the personal income tax in favor of the rich by reducing the tax rate for those on the higher tax brackets. The rationale explained by the government for the corporate tax to for us to stay competitive with neighboring economies like Hong Kong and the tweaking of the personal income tax to discourage 'tax planning' activities. Perhaps we ought to re-examine the corporate tax, personal income tax, estate duty and GST holistically together.

I am certainly no anglophile but I endorse their making equal opportunity, transparency and equitable society as non-negotiable. England was as feudal state as one can be and remains one of the last few larger economies to continue constitutional monarchy. It took England about 200 years to transition itself from an executive monarchy to constitutional monarchy in a fairly peaceful manner although there has been bloodshed compared to the number of people that died in the communist revolution that overthrew the executive Tsar monarchy in one swoop.

This is not an opportunistic endeavor to use the stage of Oslo carnage to further my personal views but looking at the Oslo Carnage through Singapore looking glass.

Cheers,,,,, Pete

My Fellow American

Monetary Quadratic Mysteries-USD/Euro/Yen/RMB

Sometime back in May 2005, I wrote a similar topic called The Currency Trilogy Impact of USA Policy on the world Economy and it is timely for a review as RMB has gained much ground to warrant being ranked as one of the major currencies of the world. The economic backdrop and her twin sister; the political struggle has also changed significantly.

Technically, there are only 3 main currencies for international trade and reserve purpose because the RMB is non deliverable outside China due to exchange controls imposed by China. This is fast changing as China is experimenting on a limited scale in denominating both import and export in RMB. There is much controversy within China that it might in fact worsen the currency imbalance much like some patients dying from the chemotherapy treatment for their cancer instead.

While this is happening, fast thinking and creative investment bankers whom are partly if not mostly to be blamed for the economic hardship in 2008 following the demise of Lehman Brothers and CDO market have started to offer products like non-deliverable RMB forward contracts where the settlement is mostly in USD/Euro/Yen. Such products has reached such maturity for Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CMB) being the first exchange globally to offer clearing facilities for such instruments to provide more liquidity, price transparency and reduce counter-party risks which wrecked havoc in 2008 for non-exchange traded products. Various exchanges has also jumped on the band wagon to provide such facilities with Singapore Exchange (SGX) being one of them for Asia Pacific region. Being a Singaporean, instead of being jubilant for Singapore, I felt uneasy as the exchanges will now bear the counter party risks. Let's hope that SGX will be disciplined and shrewd in its conduct of such trades if not God help us all in the next crisis.

In addition, a number of Chinese Banks with overseas branches have started offering deposit taking accounts denominated in RMB. The catch is that they are both non-interest bearing and acceptance and delivery is not in RMB but usually the home currency of the branch or USD. Customers are attracted by the money making possibilities based upon the upward trajectory of the RMB.

The US federal government reached its debt ceiling of USD 14.3 trillion in May 2011 and is likely to face a technical default in August 2011 if the dead lock in Congress in approving an increase in the debt ceiling continues. Surprisingly or not so surprisingly, US federal debt instruments continue to maintain investment grade rating by all 3 rating agencies i.e. Fitch, Moody and S&P. Not known to many, the oligopoly of this industry by these 3 companies is protected by US laws therefore there is bound to be COI as these rating agencies does a delicate balance of maintaining its external reputation  and not biting the hands that feeds it.

In today's complex web of financial derivatives, the impact of a technical default of US Federal Government will be further ashore than USA and beyond the holders of the bonds unlike similar circumstances when US defaulted on its bond sold in london by George Peabody of JP Morgan in 1800. Some instruments or products can vaporize into zero value if they have a Credit Event clause tied to the US Federal Government embedded within. Many of these instruments are likely to be traded off exchange and it might take longer for such defaults to become visible. There is also the domino effect of such systemic failures to contend with. All things considered, it is likely to be a larger fire ball compared to Lehman Brothers.

Since the probability of such Credit Events happening is deemed as highly unlikely, correct risk pricing becomes more complicated normally resulting in a bipolar price situation of swinging between extremes at very short notice. This could wipe out products or instruments deemed as safe haven to reach cynaide grade toxicity in a blink of an eyelid. Post Lehman Brothers, only the shorter termed instruments would have expired or re-termed on better conditions but the longer termed instruments continue unabated in carrying such risks. Another class of assets that are likely to be at risk are issuers Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Go check the definition of Credit Events in www.isda.org which is frequently referenced and used and you will be surprised by how wide and easily invokable the definition is.

With the US presidential election due in 2012 and Obama playing his cards towards a second term presidency, he is likely to go for temporal pain relief type of measures than hard to swallow bitter medicine to garner more votes. Surprisingly, his own Democrats in Congress are calling for a more difficult double barreled measure of spending cuts and increasing taxes while the Republicans are only calling for spending cuts.

Both the Euro and the Euro zone seems to be deep in trouble with Greece topping the list at present followed by lesser counter parts like Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain nick named (PIIGS). Greece seems to be in locked horns over the populace unwilling to swallow the bitter pre-conditions of ECB/IMF lead rescue package of spending cuts and increase in taxes reasoning that the economy is already in dire straits with high unemployment. Monetizing their debt is not an option if they continue to stay un ECB as only ECB can print money and not the member states who typically finance their deficits by issuing Euro denominated bonds. The differential for CDS on German Bundesbank considered the gold standard in Eurozone now against Greek government bonds have been rising to proportions equating such bonds on par with junk bonds regardless of how the rating agencies peg them. This makes it very expensive for Greece to finance its deficit compounding the problem further.

Should the inevitable but not impossible event happens that Greece gets out of the ECB, the whole un-winding process back to their own currency is likely to be 10 times more complicated, painful and long drawn than when Greece entered the ECB. Firstly, valuation wise, the formulation, basis would be so wide ranging and controversial that market sentiments will likely rule the day. Perhaps break fuse would be enforced to prevent sudden unprecedented drop but such relief is only temporal and finally, the market still dictates its valuation. Secondly, with little or no bilateral or multilateral currency swaps agreement with partner countries, the new currencies is wide open and naked to predatory practices of short term market speculators. ECB is most likely to be provide this air-cover as part of the agreement but it is likely to be only effective for short to medium term as the politicians behind the ECB are likely to loose voter support especially in Germany and France. As the ECB is an economic and monetary union with each member state preserving their own political sovereignty, the election time table is on a staggered time line unlike in USA and this would buy the ECB some more time albeit a small measure.

Perhaps the national anthem for Japan should be changed to "God Saved our Prime Minister" in japanese language of course. Naoto Kan was on the brink of being booted out of office by a no confidence initiative when a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident hit Japan on 11th March 2010. The aftermath of both the earthquake and tsunami rebuilding is underway but the nuclear accident is still un-resolved with unpredictable future outcomes as of now. With the nation facing a national calamity, Kan stay in office was temporarily secured as he promises to step down once the situation is more conducive and stable for a power transition. Kan is still in office amidst smaller calls for him to step down. Although Japan is the 3rd largest economy GDP wise, it is drowning in a huge internal fiscal deficit luckily it has a strong external trade balance to buffer it. There are concerns that the disruption in her industrial output could hamper production capabilities of other countries because less forgiving supply chain measured in days instead of weeks or months. It is not uncommon for a product to consists of parts from at least a dozen of countries or more. The re-construction will add to the huge fiscal deficit and the benefit is less likely to be broad-based but more narrowly focused on construction related industries. This could also a cause of worry for the re-emergence of Yakuza power as many construction related companies are infested with Yakuza elements in some way like the post 1972 Kobe earthquake re-construction.

If history can be relied upon to repeat itself, we could most probably rest more easily about Japan and Europe as most world-wide recessions in recent past have their roots mainly in US save I think for the Asian and Latin American economic crisis.

Of bigger concern is the forth-coming shift in economic and military power. Of the USD 14.3 Trillion debt, about USD 1.3 Trillion is held by China. In addition, China is also a major holder of Euro zone government bonds. These were the results of trade surpluses accumulated by China. It is almost a no brainer that if the current growth and decline continues with China and USA, China's GDP will surpass that of USA in about 2020. On a per capita basis, pro-literate camps in USA argue that USA still reign supreme on a per capita basis and this is what counts most. The flip side to this 'per capita' argument will also mean that China's GDP has far more growth potential to tap on as development continues in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and subsequent tiers of urban areas. My parting worry is that shifts in economic power rarely goes on peacefully and could result sew the seeds for another potential world war yet again.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter
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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Brahms Violin Concerto Opus 77-The Heart Strings Concerto

Heart strings concerto because after listening about 5 versions of this piece, I was getting increasingly emotive. I was definitely not sure whether it is melancholy, romanticism, anger, triumph or perhaps a combination of them. Perhaps, I should change my will to have this played during my funeral, or over a romantic dinner or perhaps over a deeply philosophical reflective canvass. It did not help that Brahms did little commentary to help in the interpretation except dedicating to great hungarian violinist Joseph Joachim who was introduced to Brahms by another hungarian violinist Eduard Remenyi. Both violinists contributed much to this piece as Brahms was primarily a pianist but it was Joachim that premiered and gained most of the recognition for his contribution. My recommendation for enjoying this wonderful piece is against a dimly lighted room with a glass of full body and long finish french red wine and allow your mind and body to relax. Just in case, I am not an alcoholic.

Remenyi was no ordinary person and supported the Hungarian revolution of 1848-1849 and had to leave Hungary as a result. Career wise, though with less limelight than Joachim, he was a notably successful violinist with calling cards that included solo violinist to Queen Victoria. Remenyi was mostly remembered for dropping dead in the midst of giving a concert in San Francisco.

Although there is some evidence from various correspondents that Brahms intended it to be a 4 movement piece with a scherzo in between but the final product was a 3 movement piece. As with most Brahms music, there is little guesswork on the authoritative source as Brahms made sure only the final  piece remains and discarded all work in progress.

The cadenza has about 16 versions by musicians like Leopold Auer, Henri Marteau, Max Reger, Fritz Kreisler, Jascha Heifetz, George Enescu, Nigel Kennedy, Rachel Barton Pine and Ruggiero Ricci.  On this count, it could be classed as a virtuoso show piece rather than a symphonic work. A symphonic work is most probably more appropriate as it comes with a 90 bar introduction by the orchestra and also a pretty substantial melody line on the oboe in the second movement. When attending a concert of this piece, be prepared to see the solo violinist standing doing nothing there for a good part of the work.

Joan Chissell seems to imply that this concerto was written by Brahms to bridge the quarrel with Joachim for openly siding with Amalie Schneeweiss during her divorce proceedings in 1880. It is more likely for the another Brahms piece Double Concerto opus 102 composed in 1887 as an apology instead. Not exactly sure why Brahms remained single although he claimed that his love for music is too overwhelming to accommodate another love for a wife. However, he seems to be associated with wives of his friend like Clara Schumann in addition to Joachim's divorce.

The piece was premiered on 1st January 1879 by Joachim as soloist and Brahms conducting at the Leipzig Gewandhaus. There were two major views on the program for that concert based on historical records. This is not uncommon even in modern day concerts due to no-show or last minute logistical problems for the actual concert to vary with the program. The majority view was the concert went as per the program note with Beethoven Violin Concerto in D opus 61 for the first half and Brahms Violin Concerto also in D major opus 77 for the second half. This was most probably Joachim's idea to have a more familiar piece by Beethoven to pave the way for the new work as Brahms clearly preferred it the other way. The second view held by Charles O'Connell with the concert consisting of Beethoven 7th symphony and a handful of other minor works. This seems highly unlikely as it would have stretched beyond the normal duration of a concert.

My favorite movement is the subdued second movement with the woodwinds dominated introduction that moves my heart strings greatly. Another favorite part is the cadenza part of the first movement where the soloist can demonstrate their skills. The third movement provides a contrast to the first 2 movements but I cannot finger it as being celebratory, anger or triumph.

This piece is classed as one of the four great German violin concertos along with those by Beethoven, Mendelssohn and Bruch. As such, it is also recorded by many artists but I would limit it to those I have heard and personally like it. Actually the inclusion of Mendelssohn can be a joke as the name itself is as Jewish as can be but he converted away from Judaism though.

For the more recent recordings, the two pieces that comes to mind are Joshua Bell and Julia Fischer. Another recording that has been highly acclaimed is Anne-Sophie Mutter second recording with Kurt Masur in 1997 after the death of her husband in 1995 as one of the more emotive perhaps emitting from her personal grief. As for the more dated recordings, I like Nathan Milstein second recording with conductor Eugene Jochum and David Oistrakh recording with Pierre Fournier. I understand from literature that Milstein first recording in mono is supposedly one of the best but I cannot comment as I have not heard it. 

Here are the albums:

Peter Lye aka lkypeter

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

GINI out of the Lamp or Control-Equitable Pay for Singapore Politicians

GINI is not a mis-spelling but a play of the words Genie and GINI. GINI coefficient is strangely used more widely by economists although it originated from an Italian sociologist Corrado Gini in his 1912 paper "Variability and Mutability". In essence, it postulated the dispersion of wealth within a socio-economic grouping. A value of 0 for total equal distpersion; everyone one in that socio-economic group gets the same measurable unit of value or money. 1 on the other hand represents maximal dispersion or spread. I have used the word dispersion in place of equality commonly used with GINI on purpose as dispersion measures the distribution strictly in a statistical sense whereas equality and inequality have a more complex bouquet of connotations of a moral, economic, and societal dimensions.

Lets deal first with GINI strictly based on dispersion. The dispersion of wealth in any socio-economic group is a multi-factorial matters some of which has its roots in the law of the land, migration/emigration, demography, governmental socio-economic policies, transfer payments, social safety nets which are likely to me more controllable over the horizon than factors like societal stratification,religion and commonly accepted moral mores. This list is not exhaustive lest my more scholarly colleagues strike me with their pen before I can begin. Let's first agree that a GINI coefficient of 0 is not tenable in any society including communal and communistic regimes nor is 1 acceptable as it is likely to result in anarchy mostly sooner than later. The answer is nether the mid-point 0.5 as each socio-economic grouping have different ideas on what it acceptable starting from 0 and also different threshold towards 1 before anarchy happens.

Secondly, lets attempt to thread the minefield of the more complex issue of equality and inequality. Dispersion measures the distribution of the fruits of labour without consideration of variability of efforts by individual in producing the fruits. These variability can be a result of more controllable elements like personal effort, education, foresight, equal opportunities etc. Thereafter the more tricky less controllable elements like demography, race, religion, migration/immigration, inheritance, intellect and congenital disabilities. I do not want to pretend to have an iota of how to define equality, what equalizers we can put in place and how far do we want to equalize the opportunities but not the outcome as each of us have to be responsible for our outcome to some extent. This affects people at both ends of the wealth spectrum  and the sandwich class more to a greater extend

I sincerely hope that the committee looking into this would attempt to consider these factors. Their task is not an easy one as it is not a formulae to be dealt with but a multitude of complex issues. At first, I had a sense of shame as a Singaporean when it was announced that Gerard Ee was appointed by the PM to tackle this issue as at the back of my mind, no or not many countries have seen a need to do so. Politicians are supposedly in it wholly if not partly out of altruistic reasons but I am mindful that monetary dimension of the reward have to be enough for them to lead an acceptable level of living and not be aptly tempted to corruption. However, I also subscribe that if politicians have a tendency towards corruption, no amount of monetary reward is enough for this group. When Paul Getty one of the richest man of his era was interviewed at his death bed on what is enough, his answer was just a little bit more. However, great politicians like Ghandi was never motivated by the rewards but on the converse, it was the hardship that motivated him to do greater things.

Peter Lye aka lkypeter

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Political Theme Song for Singapore Election Results-Bruckner Symphony No. 7 in E Major WAB 107

The recent election results in Singapore have been termed water-shed for the ruling party People Action Party (PAP), opposition parties especially Workers Party (WP) and all voters. The outcome can mean many things to many some of which includes:

• time and tide might NOT heal everything and over time, people might NOT forget. Politics is no longer a once in 5 year event during election campaigning,

• whether there is a need to revamp the voting system especially the Group Representation Constituency (GRC) system towards a system that moves us towards a more direct form of democracy,

• what messages are the voters telling both PAP and the opposition parties on the brand of democracy they want to see in Singapore not only in the future but also in the near future within reasonable bounds,

• last but not least, voters were politically emphatic about the voting scene due to the lack of choice in credible alternatives opposition parties in the past but is begining to realize that every vote counts and it starts with their own vote now that we have more credible, brave and altruistic opposition parties.

My position is not a binary one that runs along party lines of PAP or the opposition but how we as citizens of Singapore can participate more actively in the political process rather than treat it as a once in 5 year event. The fault for current state of democracy lies both with PAP as well as our political empathy in the past 30 years or so creating a vacuum of political power dominated by PAP. Perhaps the one party rule in the last 30 years by PAP has been an accidental fortune in that sense. A focused non-partisan rule could have been one of the major ingredients for our phenomenal economic and social growth achieved mainly by well tried and tested economic development model based mainly on foreign investment, regional service centers and export led of certain industrial clusters likes petrochemical, electronics, disk drive, wafer-fab, pharmaceutical and bio-technology. Leveraging our labour cost advantage, investor friendly policies and good industrial infrastructure, the unemployment problem was plugged by PM Lee Kuan Yew and his team. The foresight and gumption of the second generation leaders lead by PM Goh Chok Tong with the advantage of Lee and his team supporting Goh. The single party enabled Goh to execute a unilateral risky but calculated strategic move away from labour intensive to skill intensive by raising wages, skills and infrastructure in one bold orchestrated move and it worked again.

PM Lee Hsien Loong son of Lee Kuan Yew took over the reign from Goh. Lee jr started his reign with an unfair disadvantage having to defend nepotism right from the start. His father's generation was equated to building the hardware. Goh's dispensation built the software. Now that we have a complete solution in computer speak, Lee jr now is now charged with building the heart-ware to bring it from 3^rd world to 1^st world. Besides nepotism, Lee jr did not have a good economic and political developmental template to depend on unlike his dad and Goh. His team actually did not have the full mandate with his dad and Goh still looking over his shoulders closely most probably until recent past with his dad and Goh stepping down by exiting the cabinet formally.

Lee jr filled his team with capable technocrats that mostly graduated in the top tier of ivy leagues and I believe that most were well meaning in wanting to bring Singapore to 1^st world. Besides the unchartered water that Lee jr and his team were maneuvering into, they also had to face an aging and dwindling population as the total fertility rate headed south to reach 1.2. The technocratic team went into short term mode to cure it in a measurable manner that they knew best and with dated advice from his dad and Goh. Tax incentives and more child friendly policies were put in place to very little effect and the team sent in the crash cart and tried to revive the dying patient by immigration on a massive scale. Being a relatively young emigrant country, it was in the process of building a common identity. The mass immigration created a whole host of issues like depressing the wages of the lower strata of society and lead to a growing GINI index that accompanied good news rise in GDP. All was not exactly rosy on the domestic front for example health care cost faced by the population escalated because of a combination of aging population and public healthcare policies like mean testing. The escalating price of private housing spilled into public housing. Transport system was also facing congestion on public roads as the Electronic Road Pricing and Certificate of Entitlement meant to curtail usage and ownership respectively were not only unable to curb the congestion but lead to an increase in transportation cost overall. Public transportation was faced with sardine packed mass transit railway during peak hours mirroring the situation in Japan.

Many initiatives were put in place in the arena of heart-ware like giving the arts and cultural scene a lift and liberalizing censorship laws. These initiatives not only take relatively more time than hardware and software to show results but is also less measurable.

My reasons for choosing Bruckner as the theme song or symphony for this occasion are due to the following historical insights on this piece:

• this symphony was the piece that launched the composer Anton Bruckner career into stardom. I sincerely hope that this particular water-shed election results will lead to a right angle turn for our country as a whole,
• the second movement Adagio was used to announce 2 historically significant turning points like when Admiral Karl Dönitz announced Adolf Hitler death on 1^st May 1945 and also just before announcing his defeat in Stalingrad on 31^st January 1943. On this note, I do hope that the election results as a clarion call for danger ahead if we maintain status quo and dismiss the election results as noisy crying babies that can be easily pacified and forgotten.

It cannot be business as usual for PAP, opposition parties and the voters all alike and may we have a right angle turn like what Bruckner had with this symphony.

For those that like to have a deeper understanding of Anton Bruckner and Politics, there is a book "Bruckner's Symphonies-Analysis, Reception and Cultural Politics" by Prof. Julian Horton. Cambridge University Press (2004) ISBN-13 978-0-521-82354-8. I have not read the book personally but a cursory browse says it can be quite academic.

Cheers,,,,, Peter Lye


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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Singapore Election Outcome-Direct or Representative Democracy?

It is evident that democracy has become more eugenic amongst Singaporean for the rulers or rulers wannabe and the citizens of Singapore. Our elder statesman Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has made no bones that we need democracy in Singapore but not as what the West understand democracy to be. Now that that the election results are out, I shall factually attempt to look at the outcome using the dimensional framework of Direct Democracy and Representative Democracy. Direct democracy is loosely one in which the citizens participate more directly in the decision and law making process as opposed to representative democracy where citizens vote periodically for representative(s) to be their proxy for decision and law making. The two is not mutually exclusive but represents a continuum and where each state places itself along the this continuum and the mix of tools like elections, referendum employed in decision making.

The Facts
The election results although a landmark point in time event but what affects the results have to do with relevant happenings in the recent past and people's expectation of the future outcome based on their vote.

1. Creation of the Group Representative Constituencies (GRCs) in 1988 on the basis of ensuring that minority racial communities will be represented in parliament. To ensure this, at least 25% of total number of Members of Parliament ( MPs ) must be from GRCs and each GRC must have at least 1 MP from the minority race. As of now, out of the total 87 electoral districts, 15 are GRCs with 75 MPs another 12 independent electoral districts with the normal single MP or what is called Single Member Constituencies (SMCs).

• The minority race factor especially for Malays is a sensitive topic as Singapore is a small country with a Chinese majority and sizable Malay minority geographically enveloped by two large Malay/Muslim countries i.e. Malaysia and Indonesia. I have used Malay and Muslim interchangeably as there is almost a direct equation of the Malay and Muslim especially in Malaysia although one recognizes that the former is a race and the latter is a religion. On this basis, I do stand behind the basis on which the GRCs changes were made as an antidote against possible cracks along racial or religious lines and also why a referendum on this issue is not possible because the referendum is likely to run along racial or religious lines rather than a more altruistic note. Just like the various equal opportunity initiatives in USA championed by the Union in the north against the confederates in the south. However, you will notice that there is a lack of a clarion call by the minority within Singapore as well as neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia in and around 1988. It hardly won us any significant brownie points with Malaysia or Indonesia. Is minority representation a reason or an excuse?
• The creation of GRC could actually have the un-intended effect of making it more difficult for opposition to field candidates for elections as can be seen during the initial days that the un-contested electoral districts tend to come from GRCs rather than SMCs. In 1988 general elections, 3 of the 5 un-contested electoral districts were GRCs and we can say that this is marginal but if we compare the number of MPs it would be 9 out of a total of 11 MPs that belongs to uncontested GRCs. (Source: Singapore Election 1988 parliamentary results). The figures are more telling in the next election of 1991 for which 10 out of a total 11 uncontested electoral districts were GRCs representing a total of 40 of out a total of 41 un-contested MPs were from un-contested GRCs. (Source: Singapore Election 1991 parliamentary results). 
• One of the basis tenets of democracy embodies choosing a government from the people, by the people and for the people made famous by President John F Kennedy. The opposition parties have raised this point and the incumbent government has challenged them on the basis that it was not the fault of Peoples Action Party (PAP) but that of the opposition not being able to find and field candidates to avoid this problem of un-contested entry into parliament through tail coating on more influential candidates within the GRCs. We cannot deny the fact that the incumbent PAP government have two third majority in parliament to enable the party to change even the constitution of Singapore. We cannot totally exclude that the GRC system might have a more insidious intent of ensuring PAP's share of political power. Political science is rife with such examples of the danger of the incumbent misuse of their power and authority for their own end rather than representing the voice of the people. One good example is the fielding of Ms Tin Pei Ling in the GRC ward of Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong. Even before nomination day, the social media has enough noise that it is not probable for PAP not to have heard the voice of the people against fielding a relatively in-experienced person and there were public outcry that if Ms Tin Pei Ling were to stand, it is only fair that she be fielded in a SMC rather than tail-coating under Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong's Marine Parade GRC ward. Even Goh Chok Tong was very candid to have remarked before nomination day that Ms Tin Pei Ling was not really his choice but that of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. The reason for fielding a young candidate of 27 years old was for her to connect the PAP to the younger voters. PAP has clearly ignored the voice of the ground by fielding Ms Tin Pei Ling under Marine Parade GRC rather for her to earn her own stripes by standing alone in a SMC. I doubt we can believe when PAP leaders say that they hear the people but perhaps that is where it stops; hearing but not doing enough. Political science is actually clear that political party is one of the necessary evils of a democratic system and this is clearly a case in point where the political party and the people's interest can run counter to each other and yet triumph over it.

2. Contest between local and national interest. Like most Singaporean, I personally feel very sorry for Mr. George Yeo. If the system were to allow the people to choose between Ms Tin Pei Ling and Mr. George Yeo, the choice would be very obvious for the latter. The implementation of democracy is far from perfect and this is one of the more "unjust' outcome of the system.

The positioning of candidates by the party on nomination day can be more important than the outcome on election day itself. One of the key differential in this election was the appearance of a number key influential opposition candidates with stellar background to match or even exceed those of PAP candidates. My admiration goes to these people for choosing to take the more unconventional choice of riding on a lesser opposition vessel instead of the almost guaranteed easier route to power, wealth and glory via the PAP vessel. In the past, the main opposition characters that PAP had to watch carefully were Chiam See Tong, the late JB Jeyaratnam, Low Thia Khiang and Sylvia Lim. This time round, we see more of such new blood like Chen Shao Mao, Kenneth Jeyaratnam,  Vincent Wiseneraya,  Ang Yong Guan etc. With such a backdrop, the stronger opposition parties has decided on a 'show hand' in polker game speak strategy by putting their best candidates into GRC instead of SMC. WP, SPP and SDP had almost all their chips in Aljunied, Bishan-Toa Payoh and Holland-Bukit Timah GRCs respectively.

PAP was not without choice in my view. They could firstly avoid a clash of the titans by placing all their current and potential cabinet MPs out of these GRCs to ensure minimal disruption to the cabinet lineup post election. This would also mean a very good chance of losing one or a few GRCs making it a history in Singapore as no opposition party has managed to win a GRC until the 2011 general elections. However, this route seems unlikely for the all mighty PAP as my guess is that they want total control of government by occupying all seats in parliament. This can be seen from the post election reaction in 1984 when PAP lost two seats in Tanjong Pagar and Potong Pasir to Jeyaratnam and Chiam See Tong respectively. In other countries, the ruling party would have popped champagne and call it a landslide win but it was a sombre occasion for PAP on why has the people in these two electorates given the man-date to the opposition. If the PAP had taken this route, it would have made it an easier choice for the voters in these 3 GRCs by voting purely on the merits of the candidates and their position on local issues.

As expected, PAP responded to the opposition 'show hand' by doing the same by fielding part of their cabinet in these GRCs. This put a heavier burden on the voters as theirs is no longer based on the merit of the candidates and local issues alone. Their vote could result in a few cabinet ministers losing not only their MP seats but also their cabinet position as Singapore law makes it mandatory for cabinet positions to be MPs. Now that the election results are out, we know that in the case of Aljunied GRC, PAP lost the battle. To me, this election is water shed for a few reasons. Firstly, opposition party winning a GRC and secondly, cabinet ministers like George Yeo losing both their MP and cabinet position. I can only make a guess on what went on cerebrally for the voters in Aljunied GRC. My guess is that majority of these votes for the opposition was a vote for a more democratic future of Singapore against the shorter term set back of losing a few good man like George Yeo. What was telling was also the drop in the percentage of popular votes from 66.1% in 2006 to 60.1% this time round. I would like to refute the reasons that PAP is facing a younger generation of voters this time round as one only need to look at the population pyramid going more inverted now than previously.

What if PAP has chosen the second option of preserving their cabinet members by not fielding them in these 3 GRCs? My guess is there is a greater likelihood of PAP losing possibly up to 3 GRCs but all would be well within the cabinet lineup. Even with this worse case scenario, PAP would still have two third majority in parliament with mandate to change anything and almost everything including the constitution of Singapore. Sometimes, it might be better to lose a few battles and win the war but my guess is this is not likely to be within the vocabulary of PAP.

Finally, 'absolute power corrupts absolutely' in animal farm speak but 'democracy without proper law can lead to anarchy' in paraphrase by the Grecian wise sage of old Plato in 'The Republic'. No explanation but fodder for you to consider seriously when casting your vote in the next election.

Please do circulate to as many friends as possible and can visit my blogfor other writings.

Cheers,,,,, Peter Lye


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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Singapore Election Theme

With so much written on our coming general election in Singapore, I would like to take a slightly different view for voters to ponder. I take this as an open letter to all Singaporeans as it is in my blog.

1. Are we really too small to afford a more balanced parliament with sufficient check and balance ? How about some of the smaller European countries with about similar population that have done so. In Animal Farm speak "Absolute power corrupts absolutely" and it must be done constitutionally both in the letter and spirit with another quote from Plato's Republic in paraphrase "democracy without law leads to anarchy'.


2. Minimal government can sometimes be prosperous like Hong Kong pre-1997. Bad government can lead to chaos and under-development I do not dispute. However, does well paid government leads to superior performance for the country if we were to take a co-relative longitudinal study of a few countries for comparison? I am not too sure it can lead to better government in my humble opinion. I would challenge that a study be done to proof the case and not get emotional on this and let the facts speaks for itself. Whilst paying so called market rate for government talent might reduce corruption but it might not as well as Mr. Paul Getty, one of the richest American billionaire when asked by a journalist at his death bed what is enough, his answer was just a little bit more. In addition, those who want to be in government must have a certain degree of altruism and not purely on economic grounds alone.


Please do circulate to as many friends as possible and can visit my blog for other writings.


Cheers,,,,, Peter Lye


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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

German/British Parentage

An award show host who was of German/British parentage remarked that his German part would like to take over the world but his British part is too polite to say so.....(source not traceable but have a good laugh. The original joke I lifted from a show did not have the German and British as it was a BBC program. In this way we do not have to think too hard to have a laugh.

Cheers,,,,,, Pete

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.’  by Edmund Burke on Adolph Hitler

Cost of Government-FaceBook Post Chen Show Mao

Peter Lye 

Suggest you take up the issue of ministerial pay when the time is ripe. Their premise of low paying government tend to lead to bad governance I do not dispute but if we were to make a correlation between premium pay for government leads to better government has little or no political science backing. Perhaps someone myself should do a longitudinal study correlating GDP and it's growth, gini index, cost of governance taking into account glcs. Worth a thot. We ought to challenge on the premise of facts and not god has spoken. I have a personal blog on politics economics and classical music on lkypeter.blogspot.com. Cheers. Pete


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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Tchaikovsky-Andante Cantabile Op. 11-Where is the forest?

Whenever I am recommended famous standalone movement, I would diplomatically suggest that perhaps there is more hidden gems to be uncovered in listening to the complete piece instead. I was baffled when one of my friends told he how moving the piece of music Andante Cantabile by Tchaikovsky was and I suddenly held my breath and agreed wholeheartedly  for the moment. I could not remember or figure out where this piece was taken from. Upon searching for an answer, I found to my astonishment that I have with me about 10 standalone movements of this piece but not a single complete version. To add injury,  for once I did not know the origin of this piece but later found out that it was actually the second movement of Tchaikovsky's string quartet no. 1 in D minor Opus 11. As a consolation, I found out that even great artists like Maisky, Perlman and of course the more commercialized Yo-Yo Ma did not bother to record the entire 4 movements at all. My hunt for my Red October ( you should see this show about USA/Russian submarine warfare ) began and I finally managed to nail down two complete recordings by Emerson Quartet and Borodin Quartet.

The quartet was written by Tchaikovsky early in his musical career in 1871 and even the composer himself paid special attention to the second movement Andante Cantabile in B flat by writing an arrangement for solo cello and orchestra in 1888. There was much consolation to my intellect that my missing this might not have been such a big intellectual suicide after all. If you have not heard the entire 4 movements of string quartet no. 1 opus 11 where Andante Cantabile was taken from, I do urge you to do so as the other 3 movements sort of provide a larger canvas on which the melancholic Andante Cantabile was drawn on. Rest assured that most of you are likely to enjoy listening to the entire piece thereafter. This is why I added "Where is the forest?" to the title assuming Andante Cantabile to be one of the trees in the forest.

There is another interesting twist to Andante Cantabile itself that links Tchaikovsky to the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy. Edward Garden wrote in his work on Tchaikovsky and Tolstoy that while Tchaikovsky himself was a great musician, he was not well endowed literary; the libretto of his only opera Queen of Spades was written by his brother Modest Tchaikovsky. Tolstoy himself has on the same account distanced himself from much of anything musical that is beyond his comprehension although he did play the piano when he was young.

The two great Russians met in Moscow in 1876/7 resulting in Tchaikovsky's Andante Cantabile being added as part of the programme for the special evening of music in honor of Tolstoy. Although Tolstoy has limited appreciation of music, he has a great love for folk music and was moved to tears by the Andante Cantabile during that concert. Andante Cantabile has part of its origin in a Russian or Ukrainian folk song.

Tchaikovsky has fashioned a folk song of humble origin to be part of a great Romantic era music in Andante Cantabile or shall I say String Quartet No. 1.

Cheers,,,, Pete aka http://lkypeter.blogspot.com

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Bach Well-Tempered Clavier BVW840/BWV870-Out of this World Chicken Soup for the Soul

What links Johann Sebastian Bach; the father of classical baroque music, Glenn Gould; a controversial Canadian pianist/interpreter ie player of Bach music, and USA NASA Voyager space mission to warrant this article? Perhaps I have gone bonkers but please hear me out before you put the verdict on me or this article. Unlike my favorite film producer Roman Polanski that like to put his audience in suspense until the end of the show or even leave many poignant questions unanswered, I shall kill your curiosity first.

NASA launched two one way ticket unmanned spacecraft in 1977 to explore the outer reaches of the universe as well as to tell any possible intelligible live form out there that there are humans on planet Earth. One of the means is via the Golden Record on board Voyager 1 and 2. This record contains many multi-media that best describes what we are like. One section contains 27 pieces of music selected across different, geography, culture and historical time lines. 3 of these pieces were composition by Bach out pacing other famous composers like Beethoven with 2 and Mozart with 1. Well-Tempered Clavier BVW870 played by Glenn Gould was one of them. Hope that satisfies your curiosity but continue to read on.

I was very moved when a old friend of mine whom I first met about 10 years ago invited me over to his place for dinner during the recent Chinese Lunar New Year holidays as it was supposed to be their close knit family affair and I was the only non-family. We had a hearty meal over lively conversations which included dry humor by the host that one of couple he knows has started to make love daily recently. Actually, he was referring to the long running Taiwanese serial called "Love" that the couple has become addicted to and will not miss the daily broadcast for the world. The laughter was not spontaneous as with most dry humor and I shall say that those who laugh first most probably are more witty or has simply heard the joke before.

After dinner, some of us proceeded to the music room which has an impressive collection of mainly classical music on both CDs as well as old world vinyl records that most probably numbers in the thousand. This is why I call it chicken soup for the soul as good music and company is equivalent to what food is to our stomach. He also has an equally good sound system that uses old world vacuum tubes instead of modern day integrated circuits and transistors. For my audiophiles audience, I shall not debate on which is better as this is not the purpose of this article. BTW, the entire sound system was vacuum tube based. To spare us the agony of choosing music from his vast selection, he has put aside about 10-20 vinyl records for us to sample and one of the record is Glenn Gould 1975 recording of Bach Well-Tempered Clavier. As the entire composition has some 48 pieces of preludes and fugues that will take hours to go through, we only managed to sample the first 2 which is BVW840. I am familiar with this composition and own two versions of it by Vladimir Ashkensay and Angela Hewitt (2008 version as she made a second recording of the same composition in 2009 as well). I have heard a few of Glenn Gould other recordings but not this composition and was half surprised by his interpretation of it. Since the host has chosen, I chose to be politically correct as I am known to be otherwise more so because of my altruistic and passionate pre-disposition. Being politically correct does not necessities me to not express my opinion and I told the host boldly that this is one interesting interpretation of the composition and told him of the other versions that I have heard. My second nature got the better of me and I continued to mention why it was 'interesting' like the unusually stronger accent on the first note of the right hand motif as well as a more pronounced and less legato treatment of the right hand motif. To save myself, I added that it is not easy to achieve this with a highly sustained and legato left hand motif as it requires the player to divorce his left/right hand as well as very good control over the pedals on the piano. Time passes quickly in good company and music and it was time to take leave as it was getting late.

On my journey home, Glenn Gould's piece kept on making repeated loops in my mind and once I hit home, it was time to re-visit the same composition by Ashkenazy and Hewitt and it confirms the differential that I have heard. Tempo wise, Hewitt's version was well ahead of the pack like catching the 'A' train and it was a little too fast for my liking. Somehow, most recent recordings tend to be faster and Hewitt's version is also the latest of the three. It seems that some musicologist are of the opinion after more evidence has surfaced pointing to a preference for a faster pace by the composer. This itself is a very grey area as the metronome was not invented till much later and the tempo were expressed in language rather than beats per minute which is not scientific. Phrasing wise, Glenn Gould's version does stick out like a sore thumb but not necessarily in a bad way on further listening as it breaks the monotony of the motif and gave a certain life like interpretation to the composition. With the Glenn Gould recording, if you listen carefully, you can hear him humming to himself also.

I hope I have linked the 3 pieces of the puzzle together well enough and last but not least, here are the pictorial representation of 3 albums on CBS Sony, Decca and Hyperion for those who would like to venture further.

Cheers,,,, Pete aka http://lkypeter.blogspot.com

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.

Egyptian Humor amidst Turmoil

Following quoted from Tuesday 7th February 2011 edition of TODAY on page 17.

"We don't want Suleiman, he is a symbol of Mubarak. If he becomes President, we will stage another revolt. We have been living for 30 years under humiliation and injustice," said Mr Omar Gamal, a 22-year-old teacher.

Have a good laugh. If you do not find it funny, the problem most probably rests with you and not me. Ha ha ha.

Cheers,,,, Pete aka http://lkypeter.blogspot.com

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Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Copyrights of all contents in this blog belongs to Peter Lye unless stated otherwise.