A significant event that just took place is the opening of the electoral register for inspection. If past events were a good predictor of the future, it is likely for us to expect a general election before Sep 2005. On this note, it my guess that a likely window for the general election to happen is perhaps before the presentation of the next fiscal budget due in February and March 2005. The current year budget expires on 31st March 2005. The reasons for this window are manifold. Firstly, the new PM would most probably want to obtain a fresh mandate from the population to strengthen and consolidate his power base. This is even more likely if the new PM is going to announce key changes in the budget for the new fiscal year. This is most probably the likely scenario as the new PM is not known to be a status quo personality and the most predictable constant of the new PM is change. This is also evidenced by the recent cabinet level announced shortly after his appointment. Secondly, he might want to use the election to test the popularity of his new cabinet line-up or perhaps his.
My crystal ball tells me that the events would likely unfold as follows. Firstly, that the election would likely happen during the 6 weeks November/December 2004 school holidays or the one week school break in March 2005. The main reason for doing so is the convenience of using school premises as voting stations. Secondly, it is always prudent to time the election on the back of stellar economic performance as it lends credence to ruling party. On this note, the Singapore economy has been doing well of late with close to double digit growth. With economic cycles running shorter, the ruling party is also mindful to make full use of this window to stage a general election. Thirdly, due to the electoral process and the need to dissolve parliament prior to election, it would be challenging to have the election in March 2005 as there would not be enough time for parliament to approve the new budget. However, if the election were to happen in March 2005, the President could exercise his presidential decree to extend the operating budget for a month if the new budget has not been approved. This would allow the government to operate and avoid a government shutdown.
However, the capital budget might be held back in some ways. This might impact the economy somewhat and lead to a predictable slowdown that would catch up in due course of the same quarter. If elections were to happen during the November/December holidays, it would allow for a normal budget to be debated and approved before it becomes due. However, it is October now and time is running short for the November/December 2004 time table.
Perhaps Singapore would for once be more adventurous and experimental and prove my predictions wrong.
lkypeter@gmail.com Safe Harbor. Please note that information contained in these pages are of a personal nature and does not necessarily reflect that of any companies, organizations or individuals. In addition, some of these opinions are of a forward looking nature. Lastly the facts and opinions contained in these pages might not have been verified for correctness, so please use with caution. Happy Reading. Peter Lye (c) Peter Lye 2014